For Ethiopian nationalists, there are three spots on the Ethiopian - ethnic nationalist spectrum. These are 1) radical ethnic nationalists who want nothing but secession, 2) those who like the radicals consider Ethiopia a prison of nations but consent stay within Ethiopia so long as Ethiopian satisfies their demands, and 3) Ethiopian nationalists.
But the situation is of course far more complex - the spectrum is not discrete with three spots - it is continuous - various shades, like I said above. And, more importantly, individuals and even groups shift often from one position on the spectrum to another. Their opinions are not fixed in stone - they change depending on various factors.
I will use an example from Quebec 'ethnic' nationalism in Canada, which I've previously discussed here (http://asfawdarguemeshal.blogspot.com/2017/05/using-canada-to-understand-ethiopian.html). Before having given up on their dream of secession, which has become impossible due to demographic changes, Quebec nationalists used to monitor public opinion polls in order to time when to call a referendum on secession. Generally speaking, when the economy was good, polls would indicate relatively low support for secession, say 35%. This would not be a good a time to call a referendum. But when the economy dipped, support for secession would pass the 50% mark, reaching 60% or so. In this situation, if the timing was right, the Quebec nationalist party would win the provincial election and soon hold a referendum. This was the political pattern in Quebec from the early to mid 1970's to a few years ago.
The interesting point here for us Ethiopian nationalists is why the support for secession would range from 35% to 60%. Who are these people that change their minds? Are they ethnic nationalists? Or ethnic nationalists one day and Canadian nationalists the next? What makes them change their minds? Is it just the economy or are there other factors.
This group of people is what I call here the soft nationalists. And you can imagine that they were the primary target of politicians on both sides of the Quebec secession debate since the hardcore ethnic nationalists and hardcore Canadian nationalists were pretty much reliable in their opinions. But whoever managed to get the soft nationalist 'swing vote' would win. You can see that the soft nationalist constituency is extremely important in the struggle between country and ethnic nationalism.
Though we have had no polls taken in Ethiopia, anecdotally we have seen the same kind of thing happen in Ethiopia in the Abiy Ahmed era. Some Oromos who only some months ago were ethnic nationalists, because of the ascendancy of Oromos such as Abiy and Lemma Megersa to political prominence, and because of their positive and empowering rhetoric, have changed positions from ethnic nationalism and moved towards Ethiopian nationalism. However, if circumstances change, these people could swing back to ethnic nationalism.
What is the mindset of soft nationalists? They like all of us identify to some degree with their ethnicity and to some degree with Ethiopianism. Various circumstances can change which identification they lean towards. For example, if the economy is good - if they are happy - they tend to prefer the status quo. If their is some sort of ethnic conflict, this will push them to identify more towards their ethnicity. If some prominent Ethiopians start spewing anti-Oromo rhetoric they will get insulted and move towards their ethnicity. If they see Oromos in positions of leadership, or if they see Afan Oromo and other aspects of their identity prominently featured in our politics and culture, they will move towards Ethiopian nationalism. This is basically how soft nationalism works - it is fluid based on various factors.
Here I will add another example from recent Ethiopian history - that of Eritrea. When Eritrea was confederated with Ethiopia, a vast majority of Eritreans happily supported this move and considered themselves Ethiopia. As various factors changed negatively, including the ending of the confederation, but most importantly the terror of the Dergue regime, the huge support for Ethiopia turned towards support for secession! What a turnaround and what a lesson, if we would learn from it.
It's clear that this soft nationalist constituency group is very important for Ethiopian nationalists in our struggle against radical ethnic nationalism and the conflict that it generates. It is important that in we focus on soft nationalists in our political discourse to ensure that they come to and remain on the side of Ethiopian nationalism and to ensure that we don't push them into the arms of ethnic nationalists. How do we do this?
1. Ensure good governance and a decent economy. The Dergue basically pushed Eritreans out by making Ethiopia an unlivable country for all. While Ethiopian nationalists react to this via civic protest, soft nationalists react to such stress by becoming more ethnic nationalist.
2. Ensure the ethnic demands of soft nationalists are addressed. Some might call this 'appeasement', I would call it political realism. For example, given at least 35% of Ethiopia's population is Oromo-speaking, making Afan Oromo an official federal language makes sense not just as appeasement but to strengthen Ethiopia.
3. Ensure diplomatic rhetoric around the issue of ethnic nationalism and avoid statements that ethnic nationalists can use to swing soft nationalists their way. For example, if someone insults or says something considered insulting about Oromos, this will be eagerly used as political fodder by the ethnic nationalists to illustrate that Ethiopian nationalists are racists and elitists. So this must be avoided at all costs. I should add here that I have found certain officials of Patriotic Ginbot 7 especially adroit at this tactic (see this article: http://asfawdarguemeshal.blogspot.com/2016/11/some-basics-on-interacting-with-ethnic.html). As an aside, during the two Quebec referendum campaigns, the ethnic nationalist side would careful monitor all statements by Canadian nationalists looking for some sort of insult or slight that they could use in their campaign. At the same time, the Canadian nationalist side would expend significant resources trying to prevent this!
So, to sum up, there is such a political phenomenon as soft nationalism. For the Ethiopian nationalist constituency and leadership, it is important to understand this and address soft nationalists concerns in order to bring them towards Ethiopian nationalism. This strategy is in my opinion a must in keeping radical ethnic nationalism at bay in Ethiopia.
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