Towards an Integrated Ethiopia

Decades ago we used to be presented with a stark choice between a "unitary" state speaking Amharic, assimilating all other ethnic groups, and with nearly everything controlled by the central government, and approximately 85 separate nations, one for each of our ethnic groups! And unfortunately all debate revolved around these caricatures, and we never got anywhere.

Today, thankfully things have changed. We have, fortunately or unfortunately, data from 27 years of the radical experiment called ethnic federalism, where as much as was realistically possible, regions were drawn along ethnic lines and ethnicity ("nations, nationalities, and peoples") became the foundation of the Ethiopian state. I would say that these 27 years have shown us conclusively that this formula is one of ethnic strife, conflict, war, ethnic competition, ethnic-motivated mass dislocations, etc.

Some would say that what we have had is fake or bastardized ethnic federalism in which the TPLF ruled as a dictatorship and never really implemented the constitution in practice. This is certainly true to some extent, but enough was implemented to see the results. Ethnic based regions were created, ethnic based identity cards were encouraged in many regions, and there was some degree of self rule in the regions. Moreover, most of the ethnic conflicts throughout Ethiopia have not been related to TPLF dominance. Instead, they have been occurring between non-Tigrean ethnic groups. Take for example Amharas and other "non-locals" being evicted from various regions, or being hunted down and murdered in the name of retribution for historical injustices. Or conflicts between Gedeo and Guji, or Oromo and Somali, or Qemant and Amhara, or Agew and Amhara, etc. There are plenty of examples. It is clear that the placement of ethnicity at the centre of political life resulted in conflict and ethnic political competition, which is always a recipe for disaster. Despite the fact that the ethnic federalism experiment was not perfectly tried out, we have seen enough to know that it cannot work for Ethiopia.

As I say this, I have to add that the even EPRDF itself recognized a couple of years ago that this was the case. The main catalyst for this recognition was that the ethnic hatred inculcated by ethnic federalism started to target Tigreans more and more. The combination of ethnic federalism and the EPRDF's beloved developmental state was proving untenable. The public's resentment against the ruling class, as represented by the EPRDF, was not only based on politics and class, but on ethnicity - on anti-Tigrean sentiment. The resentment became virulent, and the EPRDF knew that things could not continue as is without full blown ethnic war. Hence the beginning of the opening of the EPRDF, and in particular the TPLF, to changes that eventually brought about Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his team to power.

So I think today it is clear that the ethnic federalism formula as we have it, even if implemented 'perfectly', is not a good solution for Ethiopia because it brings about conflict. Not because it is inherently unjust, but because we have evidence that it does not work and it results in concrete strife and misery. Why has it not worked? A few reasons... First, there is in many parts of Ethiopia ethnic resentment and historical baggage. Ethnic-based governance only exacerbates this. Second, a significant portion of our incapable political elite wish to use ethnic competition as a way to political power and have no qualms about encouraging ethnic conflict. Third, there has been over hundreds or thousands of years significant integration and even assimilation in Ethiopia, resulting in a large constituency not interested in ethnicity, but nevertheless persecuted by ethnic politics for historical grievance reasons and for not signing on to the ethnic ideology. For these and other reasons, and given the evidence we have, the current ethnic federalism formula should, in time, be abandoned.

Abandoned for what? For many of us, the choice today is between 1) an integrated and synthesized Ethiopianism or 2) an Ethiopia divided on ethnic lines - a nation of disparate nations. 2) is more or less what we have now, the recipe for ethnic strife and conflict. The first choice is, I think, our only choice. What is integrated and synthesized? It means reflecting as much is realistically possible and in keeping with the wants of the population everyone's identity in Ethiopianness. An obvious and often stated example of this: making the Oromo language a national language of Ethiopia, in addition to the current Amharic, integrates into Ethiopianness the use of the Oromo language. It moves it from the periphery, or from a single region, to the national level. Another example: integrating elements of the Gadaa political structure into the nation's political structure. And so on. What about other ethnic groups and their identities? What about the level of regional and local autonomy? These and several other questions can be answered via discussion and evolution. But the point is that integration and unity is the only way to peace and prosperity. A single Ethiopian identity must be cultivated, not to the exclusion of ethnic identity, but to ensure that it always supersedes ethnic identity, thereby reducing the temptation of ethnic politics and ethnic conflict.

What about the transition from ethnic based politics to this new "Ethiopian" politics? It should probably be slow since we have a generation schooled under the ERPDF's ethnic politics and we have a perhaps worse older political class schooled under Marxism and democratic socialism. The first step is to implement integrative policies such as the language policy I mentioned above. One of the goals of this policy is to increase inter-ethnic integration and increase the non-ethnicized population. After some years (or decades) of this, the proportion of non-ethnicized Ethiopians will be such that a transition to non-ethnic politics will be easy.

That is the plan. There are two hindrances that I see. First, the obvious, are the ideological and cynical ethnic politicians who would stand to lose from an abandonment of ethnic federalism. The second is the group against ethnic politics but which does not have the political savvy and empathy needed to relate to and hold discussions with ethnic federalists. The ethnic politicians we will always have with us - I don't think there is anything we can do but marginalize them. But the second group we should work on as if this group - I call it the Ethiopianist group - gets its act together, then we will have a smooth transition from today's combustible ethnic federalism to an integrated and synthesized Ethiopia.