"Make A Wish" Politics

RE: Ethiopia: A Country On The Brink (http://www.ethioreference.com/archives/17240), by Dawit Woldegiorgis.

With respect - and Dawit Woldegiorgis and I are on the same side of course - I cannot fathom how anyone with the least knowledge of politics can consider a transitional government without an opposition to speak of. For me, Ato Dawit's article is a continuation of 27 years of those opposing the TPLF complaining and discussing wild ideas without presenting a viable alternative. Viable.

Today, the only opposition with any real power are the ethnic nationalists (e.g. Qerro). The Ethiopianist opposition has no strong organization and little power. It has little ability to influence, exert soft or hard power, raise funds, mobilize masses, mobilize the elite, enforce its will within government institutions, etc. This weakness of the Ethiopianist political segment is, by the way, the main source of our political problems. PM Abiy Ahmed has to be careful in handling the ethnic nationalists, but he has no Ethiopianist organization to buttress him from the other side. Yes, G7, Addis Ababa,  and others are working on creating strong Ethiopianist organizations, but we are still a long way off. Maybe some months or a year from now, things will be different. But for now, the ethnicists have the upper hand - by far.

A transitional government by definition has to reflect political power, otherwise it cannot govern and enforce its edicts. If for example the EPRDF decides to create a transitional government with equal representation from the ethnic nationalists and the Ethiopianists, the ethnic nationalists can throw a fit and create real, tangible problems, from street riots to using their influence within current government structures to sabotage the transitional government. The Ethiopianist opposition, on the other hand, has no tangible way in which to express it's displeasure. It has no tangible way to project its power. Maybe more articles from the likes of Dawit and me is all it can do. Maybe a street protest that will easily be quashed, as we have little power inside government institutions to prevent this.

This is, by the way, the reason why Ethiopianists and the Amhara, who at the time were all Ethiopianists, were not represented in the transitional government of 1991. We had no real power! In the face of being excluded, we could do nothing except, again complain and write articles. Dawit Woldegiorgis, who was around at that time, ought to remember this well.

Both Ato Dawit's proposals - that Abiy resign and be replaced by someone who will not acquiesce to ethnic nationalists, and that Abiy form a transitional government - assume the existence of an Ethiopianist political segment with real power. Such an Ethiopianist organization does not exist. This is reality. So all the focus should be on strengthening Ethiopianist political institutions. Parties, civic organizations, etc. We need money, people, influence, people within government structures, etc. When this work is completed, then any option, a transitional government or Abiy himself, will have a good outcome.