A Simple Grand Bargain

Contrary to popular opinion, the ethnic crisis in Ethiopia is not so difficult to solve, assuming good faith on the part of most stakeholders. There are actually several possible solutions, and here I shall present one simple one - the Simple Grand Bargain.

Let us assume that the parties to the bargain are 'ethnic nationalists' and 'Ethiopian nationalists'. Let's begin by describing the wants of these two political groupings in the simplest terms.

The demands of ethnic nationalists are basically as follows:

1. Acknowledgement by the Ethiopian nation of past oppression
2. A new historical narrative that takes past injustices and the rest of their narrative into account
3. Have the Ethiopian nation as a society and government adequately reflect the culture and language of their ethnic groups, given that their culture and language have been repressed in the past
4. Government policies in all spheres - economic, social, educational, etc. - and at all levels - federal, regional, etc. -  that compensate for ethnic inequalities that have resulted from past injustices
5. Ethnic federalism - A political arrangement of Ethiopia being a nation of nations, where ethnic groups have similar rights to nations within a confederation, including significant sovereignty, ownership of land, etc.

Note here the special nature of 5) - ethnic federalism.

We can say that there are two kinds of ethnic nationalists in the way they look at ethnic federalism. The first group sees ethnic federalism as a means of achieving 1) through 4). This group says that 1) through 4) cannot be achieved without ethnic federalism. Or in other words, without ethnic federalism, Ethiopian nationalists will find a political way of preventing 1) through 4).

The second group sees ethnic federalism as an end in itself. Even if 1) through 4) were achieved today to their satisfaction, they see themselves as a nation and want the country's politics to reflect that.

Now, hold on to this, and let's move on to Ethiopian nationalists. The demands of Ethiopian nationalists can be summarized as follows:

1. A political arrangement based on citizenship, so that the citizen is primary unit of the nation and has an can exercise full rights anywhere without discrimination. In other words, no second class citizenship anywhere.
2. To have basically no ethnic discrimination in government structure and policy, so that no one is favoured or disfavoured based on ethnicity. Basically no affirmative action, preferential treatement, etc.

Now, before going on to discuss how these demands can be reconciled, let's look at the current state of Ethiopian politics and why there is a need for change and a new bargain.

Obviously the first and main problem is inter-ethnic conflict. The conflict is over land, over political power, and any number of other issues which always take on an ethnic dimension and are therefore exacerbated orders of magnitude. This conflict is the single and major cause of the current political crisis in Ethiopia. All political groups and observers of all stripes in Ethiopia acknowledge this, and we know this because all periodically make references to Rwanda as a worst case scenario.

So to solve this problem - the problem of inter-ethnic conflict - we add a third dimension to the bargain. The first being the demands of ethnic nationalism, the second the demands of Ethiopian nationalism, and the third is the 'demand (requirement) for peace'. The reconciliation has to take place between these three parties - ethnic nationalists, Ethiopian nationalists, 'peace' . It is of no use if the demands of any one of these parties is ignored. If ethnic nationalist and Ethiopan nationalist elites come to an agreement on paper but there is no resulting peace, it's no good. If Ethiopian nationalist demands are not addressed but there is peace, then of course eventually conflict will arise, so that's no good either. The demands of all three dimensions have to be fulfilled.

So, what is the Simple Grand Bargain that will fulfill the demands of ethnic nationalists and Ethiopian nationalists, and produce a peaceful outcome? Here it is... The solution begins by accepting the first four demands of the ethnic nationalists. Then we accept the first demand of the Ethiopian nationalists - a citizenship based constitution. We cannot accept the second demand because it may conflict with the fourth demand of the ethnic nationalists, which may include affirmative action based on ethnicity. So it looks like this:

1. Acknowledgement by the Ethiopian nation of past oppression
2. A new historical narrative that takes past injustices and the rest of the ethnic nationalist(s) narrative into account
3. Have the Ethiopian nation as a society and government adequately reflect the culture and language of all ethnic groups, given that culture and language have been repressed in the past
4. Government policies in all spheres - economic, social, educational, etc. - and at all levels - federal, regional, etc. -  that compensate for ethnic inequalities that have resulted from past injustices
5. A political arrangement based on citizenship, so that the citizen is primary unit of the nation and has an can exercise full rights anywhere without discrimination. In other words, no second class citizenship anywhere.

This arrangement fulfills nearly all the demands of ethnic nationalists, except for ethnic federalism, which as I noted above is for many just a means of achieving 1) through 4). But anyway, as I argued above, ethnic federalism is by nature a source of conflict, this has been evidenced over the past 28 years, including the past year during a time of relative freedom, so one cannot achieve any sort of peace under ethnic federalism. So as long as peace is our primary goal, only demands 1) through 4) of ethnic nationalists can be met.

As far as Ethiopian nationalists are concerned, their main demand is a citizenship-based constitution that guarantees equal citizenship rights to everyone living anywhere in Ethiopia. This Simple Grand Bargain fulfills this requirement. Yes, many Ethiopian nationalists may not agree to ethnic nationalists' demands 1) through 4), but if they get in exchange a citizenship based political arrangement, I am certain most would take it in a heartbeat.

So this is a Simple Grand Bargain. Any takers?!