Short Memories!

Some of us seem surprised at comments by a certain political commentator, Muluwerq Kidanemariam, that given the current political atmosphere, Tigray Region might find it necessary to invoke article 39 of the constitution and exit Ethiopia. But given the history of the TPLF, such comments are nothing unusual and nothing to be alarmed about.

It seems that many have forgotten, or were too young to remember, the TPLF and EPRDF of the 1990's, particularly until the 2000 Ethio-Eritrean War. This was the peak of ethnic nationalism and anti-Ethiopian nationalist rhetoric in Ethiopia, sponsored and encouraged by the TPLF and EPRDF. TPLF supporters, arm in arm with their EPLF comrades, gleefully lorded it over us 'chauvinists'. It was de rigueur for EPRDF members and supporters to identify with their ethnicity first, and Ethiopia second, and reluctantly at that. Often us naïve and shell-shocked Ethiopian nationalists would during the course of a discussion ask a TPLF or OPDO/OLF supporter if they consider themselves Ethiopian, and the defiant answer would be that they are Tigrean or Oromo first, and then Ethiopian (maybe)!


EPRDF officials and supporters would often say that if by some improbable tragedy the TPLF/EPRDF would fall from power and the 'chauvinists' replace them, they would promptly exit Ethiopia. Their 'Ethiopianness' hung on a thread. This was the tone of Ethiopian politics during the 1990's, and this is merely what Ato Muluwerq has repeated in his interview. Nothing new!

During the Ethio-Eritrean war, things changed a little. The departure of EPLF officials and supporters from Ethiopian political circles resulted in a lowering of anti-Ethiopianism in Addis Ababa. In addition, the war effort required the EPRDF to mobilize a good degree of patriotism - Ethiopian patriotism - all around Ethiopia, even in Oromia, the region that the EPRDF claimed was most victimized by Ethiopian nationalism. The EPRDF were very pragmatic - they did what they needed to do to achieve their goal which was, via war, saving face over the EPLF. So pragmatic were they that they recruited former military officers of their arch-enemy Dergue into the Ethiopian military for the fight!

After the war, and leading up to the 2005 elections, the EPRDF began to shift from fervent anti-Ethiopian nationalism to a little more centrist position. Its anti-chauvinist rhetoric began to be accompanied by anti-'narrow nationalist' rhetoric. Eventually, driven by a more flexible Meles Zenawi, the EPRDF even tried the open 2005 elections, leaving itself vulnerable to the feared and hated chauvinist political forces. When the course of the elections did not go as planned, Meles reverted to form and raised the specter of anti-Tigrayan violence and even talked about genocide! Again, this is what we are seeing now - again, many TPLF supporters are interpreting the threat to the monopoly that the TPLF/EPRDF has on political power as an anti-Tigrayan pogrom!

After crushing the 2005 anti-government movement - with indispensable help from the opposition I might add - the ERPDF moved quickly to an agenda of political monopoly through economic growth - the China/East Asia 'developmental state' model. In the Ethiopian context, the EPRDF named this model 'lmatawi mengst'. The EPRDF figured that a focus on development would make the people forget about politics and, just as importantly, ethnicity. The developmental state was a bargain with the Ethiopian people - high economic growth in exchange for monopoly political power - and it was a great success for the EPRDF. Far more successful than it would have ever imagined. Any political opposition was squashed with impunity, but we, the masses, generally acquiesced, was we were to busy making money - or trying to.

During this time, the EPRDF continued moving slowly away from ethnic nationalism. The rhetoric about Tigrawi-first, Ethiopian-second became a distant memory. Instead, members and supporters of the EPRDF began to portray themselves as being 'more Ethiopian' than their opponents, including the 'chauvinists'! The term 'chauvinist' itself became passé in EPRDF circles, and was replaced by terrorists and anti-Ethiopians! What a change from the old days!

However, with time, the developmental state began to display its own problems. As elsewhere, for example China, the masses began to express intense dissatisfaction with the corruption of the ruling party and the resulting lack of civic and economic justice. This is a significant problem in and of itself. But in Ethiopia, it has been increased orders of magnitude because of ethnic nationalism. Because of ethnic nationalism, this dissatisfaction is expressed not just in civic terms, but ethnic terms, and as we all know, any conflict is greatly increased if ethnicity becomes a factor.

So now, the TPLF and its supporters see themselves faced with an existential crisis, and they don't seem to have anyone to help them figure out an innovative solution. So they retreat into old theories and clichés of their childhood, such as what Ato Muluwerq talks about in his interview.

This is not surprising, neither should it be alarming. But it is folly to expect the TPLF, a small partner in the EPRDF, to continue to manufacture solutions - good or bad - to Ethiopian political problems. Inevitably, they will reach a state of exhaustion - they might even be there now. Their never ending yearning for Meles, who had a way of assessing and finding a way out of problems, shows this. They should be relieved of this huge burden that we have saddled them with for decades. By 'we', I mean the general political opposition, especially those who consider ourselves Ethiopian nationalists. It is we who have failed the nation, and even though we have severely debilitated ourselves, we have no choice but to somehow grow up and do our fair share.

So let us not worry about the Ato Muluwerq's of this world. They are at their wits end, and for this I don't blame them. It us up to us to find a way out of this quagmire.