The TPLF's Long Suicide

 "...the TPLF and, dare I say, a significant portion of the Tigrean elite is in the midst of an identity crisis imposed upon them by unfortunate historical circumstances. The advent of Marxism, the 1974 revolution, the Dergue's terrible misgovernance, etc., led to the birth of a TPLF with an outlook that stood firmly against the long term interests of Tigreans. Tigray, being a small, industrious, out-migratory region, stands to benefit from a citizenship based federalism - a multicultural and decentralized federalism but one in which the citizen, not ethnicity, is primary. Ethnic federalism goes completely against the interests of Tigray, because it results in Tigreans not being able to freely live and work outside their region. Yet the TPLF and many Tigrean intellectuals still support ethnic federalism!"

In 1991, the TPLF, a typically radical and stubborn Ethiopian Marxist party, instead of revising what was clearly a mistaken ideology, doubled down! It hoisted on Ethiopia an extremist and radical constitution, the type of which does not exist anywhere else in the world. But Meles Zenawi and co. had to govern, and to do so, they decided to concoct the impossible 'revolutionary democracy' ideology, which in essence depended solely on the TPLF being the sole power hegemon in Ethiopia.

The TPLF's assumption that it could remain the sole power in Ethiopia was of course completely unrealistic. Ethnic politics inflames ethnic tensions, and eventually the largest ethnic groups assert themselves against minorities, particularly against minorities that are viewed as being dominant or wealthy. This is inevitable. This brings us to the TPLF's second false assumption - that it could hold the Oromo and Amhara at bay by fueling their competition against each other. This was of course a pipe dream. The system set the TPLF up as not just a political target, but an ethnic target. And given the environment of ethnic competition or hate, the nature of the grievance would be deadly. Far deadlier than, say, class grievance. And that's what eventually happened. The "Oromo" and the "Amhara" ousted the "Tigray", as per the TPLF's constitution!

With the advent of the EPRDF's forced reform in 2018, the TPLF got a chance to, again, revise its old suicidal ideology in favour of one that benefitted its Tigray constituency. But it could not overcome its stubborn pride, a pride built upon a perceived military victory over the Dergue, and upon 27 years of ruling Ethiopia as a minority while lording it over all other political competitors. This is understandable. To expect the TPLF, which had its distorted mindset reinforced via political and economic success for decades, to change was and is unrealistic. Modern Ethiopia produces yet another unreformable political prodigal.

There are lessons to be learned from the story of the TPLF, and the most important point is that the lesson learner is not the TPLF but those at the centre of the Ethiopian political spectrum. The most important lesson, I think, is to always err on the side of moderation. The best, that is the most peaceful, politics requires moderation and self reflection, giving the benefit of the doubt to other points of view, and giving primacy to no ideology except peace. Let us at least learn something from the tragic story of the TPLF.

ድላችን ጦር ሜዳ ላይ እንዳይቀር

ህወሓት በጦር ሜዳ መሸነፉ የሚቀር አይመስለኝም። ጊዜ ይፈጅ ይሆናል፤ በርካታ ጉዳት ይደርስ ይሆናል፤ ግን የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ህወሓትን ይቆጣጠረዋል። ትልቁ ጥያቄ ግን «ከዝያስ?» ነው። የፌደራል መንግስት ብቻውን በትግራይ ክልልም በመላው ኢትዮጵያም ሰላም ሊያሰፍን ይችላል ወይ?

የሚችል አይመስለኝም። የጠ/ሚ ዓቢይ አህመድ መንግስት ላለፉት ሁለት ዓመታት ከባድ የፖለቲካ ስራ ሰርቷል። መንግስቱ ብዙ ነገር ቢሳካለትም የቀሩት ችግሮች ብዙና ከባድ ናቸው። ሽብር፤ የዘር ጭቆና፤ ማፈናቀልና ግድያ ቀጥሏል። መንግስት እነዚህን ችግሮች እስካሁን ሊፈታ አልቻለም። (አንዳንዶች መንግስት እንኳን ሊፈታው የችግሩ አካል ነው ይባላል ግን ለኔ ይህ ስሜታዊነት ነው።)

መንግስት እነዚህን ችግሮች ለምን መፍታት አልቻልም ለሚለው ጥያቄ መልሴ ብቻውን ሊፈታው ከአቅሙ በላይ ነው ነው። መንግስት ችግሮቹን ለመፍታት የህዝብ ጠንካራ ስሜታዊ ሳይሆን ተግባራዊ ትብብር ያስፈልገዋል ግን ይህን እስካሁን በበቂ ደረጃ አላገኝም። 

የህዝብ ተሳትፎ አስፈላጊነትን ለመረዳት ያህል እስቲ የህወሓትን ትግል እንመልከት። የህወሓት አመራር፤ አባላት፤ የአባል አክስትና አጎት፤ አያት፤ ልጅ፤ ወዘተ ናቸው ለህወሓት የሚታገሉት!! ለዚህም ነው ስምንት ሚሊዮን ህዝብ ወክላለው የሚል ድርጅት ሀገር ሙሉን የገዛው እና ዛሬ የሀገር መንግስት ሊሞግት የቻለው። ሁላችንም የናውቀው ግን ለመናገር የሚያሳፍረን ነገር ነው። ሀውሓት ከጫካ እስከ መንግስት እስከ መቀለ ስደት በሄደበት ጉዞ ታላቅ የተቀናበረ የምሁራን፤ የሊሂቃን፤ የነጋዴና የህዝብ ድጋፍ ኖሮት ነው።

የጠ/ሚ ዓቢይ መንግስት ግን እንደዚህ አይነት የተቀነባበረ የተግባር ድጋፍ በበቂ ደረጃ የለውም። ላለፉት 50 ዓመታት ጣቅላላ የ«አንድነት» ፖለቲካ ጎራው እንደ ህወሓት ወይንም ሻቢያ ትልቅ የፖለቲካ «ማሺን» ኖሮት አያውቅም። ለዚህ ነው ህወሓት በቁጥር ትንሽ ሆኖ የአንድነት ጎራውን ለሰላሳ ዓመት በቀላሉ የተቆጣጠረው።

የአንድነት ፖለቲካ ጎራው ከዚህ ግድ መማር አለበት። የሀገር ህልውና ጉዳይ ነው፤ ካሁን ወድያ በመንግስት ብቻ መመካት አይቻልም። እንደ ህወሓት እና ሻቢያ በሁሉም የህብረተሰብ ክፍል የተሟላ የፖለቲካ ማሺን ያስፈልገዋል። ሁላችንም ከነ አክስት አጎቶቻችን በተናጠል ሳይሆን በተቀነባበረ መልኩ ተሳትፈን አብረን መስራት አለብን። በዚህ መንገድ ለአንድነትና ለሰላም ፖለቲካ ከታገልን ስኬታማ እንሆናልን። እንኳን ትናንሽ ተቀናቃኞች እንደ ህወሓት የዓለም ግዙፍ ሀገራትንም መቋቋም እንችላለን። አለበለዛ ለመንግስት ብቻ ትተነው የራሳችን ተሳትፎ በተናጥል የወሬ ድጋፍ መስጠት ከሆነ እድላችን አነስተኛ ነው የሚሆነው።

Overtures to the TPLF

Some Amhara nationalists, in the wake of a perceived rise in the power of Oromo nationalism, are making overtures to the TPLF or 'Tigray' for a possible alliance to combat Oromo nationalism. I'm sorry, but this is the height of silliness! It simply repeats our decades long practice of negative-sum politics, as disastrous in the long-term as it is appealing in the short.

First, those who support citizenship federalism should not need the TPLF or anyone else to combat ethnic nationalism. The very fact that some think they need the help illustrates the fundamental problem - the lack of a large and powerful citizenship politics organization. If we had a coherent movement concomitant to our grassroots support, then we would have easily come to a favourable agreement with ethnic nationalists. But our lack of tangible political power makes us flail around looking for help anywhere we can get it, thereby repeatedly building our political house on sand. Inevitably our temporary alliances and escapes end and we're back at throats of former allies.

Second, the TPLF and, dare I say, a significant portion of the Tigrean elite is in the midst of an identity crisis imposed upon them by unfortunate historical circumstances. The advent of Communism, the 1974 revolution, the Dergue's terrible misgovernance, etc., led to the birth of a TPLF with an outlook that stood firmly against the long term interests of Tigreans. Tigray, being a small, industrious, region, stands to benefit from a citizenship based federalism, a multicultural and decentralized federalism but one in which the citizen is primary. Ethnic federalism is completely against the interests of Tigray, because that would result, more or less, in Tigreans not being able to freely live and work outside their region. Yet the TPLF and most Tigrean intellectuals still support ethnic federalism! This is the problem that the rest of us Ethiopians, Ethiopian nationalists and even Amhara nationalists have to tackle, through persuasion and discussion, of course. This will be a long process. However, we should not abort this process by allying with the TPLF in an artificial power play.

The Blame Game Does Not Work

Along the way, some of our politicians, intellectuals, and commentators seem to have latched on to the silly idea that with enough negative commentary, they can mobilize a political force to fulfill their aims! "If we criticize Abiy enough, we'll get people to take action against him or he'll be forced to change,", they say.

Well, we have seen over 27 at least that this patently does not work. There was ample propaganda against the TPLF, and yet it was not because of this propaganda that people resisted and revolted. They resisted mainly for one reason - Tigray/TPLF favouritism that they experienced and perceived in their everyday lives. Note, that they experienced and perceived in their everyday lives, not what they were told by opposition media and politicians. Every protest, voiced and silent, was against this 'Tigrean domination'.

When the 'great change' came about, the change agents were not opposition politicians or media, but from within the EPRDF. This amply illustrates how weak the Ethiopian nationalist opposition was (and is). Even after 27 years, it had not mobilized into a powerful enough force to become the main change agent.

One of the reasons for this was the silly strategy of focusing entirely on the 'blame game' on negative propaganda about the TPLF, and completely neglecting the necessary task of mobilizing a powerful Ethiopian nationalist party and/or civic organization. This resulted in no one working on the task of mobilization, an extremely difficult task at that, and no results.

Unfortunately, even today, most of our politicians and commentators are stuck in this same old mentality of focusing on others, this time Prime Minister Abiy, the ODP, OLF, NAMA, etc. Yes, some of our intellectual class have come to understand that we have to focus on our own agency, but these are still few and far between. But this cannot continue like this. Things must change. A powerful, well-funded, and mature Ethiopian nationalist organization is a sine qua non for the survival of the nation, and as such deserves our full attention. Politicians, intellectuals, and commentators, I urge you to stop the blame game; I urge to stop blaming everything on 'others'; and I urge you to dedicate yourselves fully to the task of mobilizing Ethiopian nationalism.

ስለ ራያ ማንነት ውይይት፤ ዳር ዳሩን ከማለት ወደ ቁምነገሩ ካልገባን ችግሮችን አንፈታም

ይህን ስለ ራያ ማንነት ጉዳይ ቃለ ምልልስ ስመለከት ጠያቂውም እንግዶቹም ስለ ህግ አፈጻጸም እና ሂደታዊ (procedural) ጉዳዮች ከዓንድ ሰዓት በላይ ተወያይተው ዋናው መሰረታዊ የሆነው ጉዳይ ላይ ምናልባት 10 ደኪካ ነው ያዋሉት። «በግልጽ እንነጋገር ከተባለ…» ማለቱ ለምን ያስፈልጋል፤ መጀመሪያኑ በግልጽ ስለ መሰረታዊ ጉዳዩ መነጋገር ነው።

በግጭት መፍታት (conflict resolution) መሰረታዊ ችግር እንዳለ መገንዘብ፤ ከዛ ችግሩን ማወቅ፤ ከዛ ችግሩን ለመፍታት መስራት አብዛኛው ጊዜ የግድ የሆነ አስፈላጊ ሂደት ነው። አለበለዛ የችግሮቹ ውጤቶች ላይ እየተተኮረ እሳት እየተለኮሳ እሳት እያጠፋን እንቀጥላለን። መሰረታዊ ችግሩ እየተባባሰ ይሄዳል። እርግጥ የግጭቱ አካሎች ስለ መሰረታዊ ጉዳዩ ማውራት ማሰብም አይወዱ ይሆናል ግን አማራጭ የለም። ክስ ብሎ አለስልሶ ወደዛ መግባት ግድ ነውና።

የራያ መሰረታዊ ጉዳይ የራያ ማንንነት ኮሚቴ(ዎች) መቼ አመለከቱ ለማን አመለከቱ አይደለም። ይህ ሁለተኛ ጉዳይ ነው እና ብዙ የውይይት ጊዜ ሊፈጅ አይገባም። መሰረታዊ ችግር እና ጥያቄው እንደገባኝ ከሆነ እንዲህ ነው፤

1) እኛ ከትግሬ የተለየ የራያ ማንነት አለን እና አለፍላጎታችን በትግሬ ክልል ተካለልን፤
2) ሰባዊ መብታችን በትግራይ ክልላዊ መንግስት ለ27 ዓመት ትጥሷል እና ተጭቁነናል፤
3) መጀመሪያውኑ የጎሳ አስተዳደር ባይሆን ኖሮ ይህ የማንነት ጉዳያችን በዚህ መልኩ አይነሳም ኖሮ፤
4) አማራ ክልል ብንገባ መብታችን እና ሰላማችን ይከበራል እና የአምባገናን ትግራይ ክልልውስጥ መሆን አንፈልግም።

በርካታው የውይይቱ ጊዜ በነዚህ ጥያቄዎች ዙርያ መሆን ነበረበት ብዬ አስባለው። በዛሬው የፖለቲካ ሁኔታ ጥያቄዎቹ እጅግ ከባድ ናቸው እና ብዙ ውይይት ያስፈልጋቸዋል። ይህን ትቶ ስለ ደብዳቤ እና ግልባጭ ማውራት ትንሽ priority ማጣት ይመስለኛል።

በባንክ ዘራፊዎች ሽፍቶች ነበር ሀገራችን የተገዛው

የሃብታሙ አያሌው እና ኤርሚያስ ለገሰ ውይይትን አዳምጡት፤

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A78Tet3GCms

አንዱ ከሚወያዩበት ነጥቦች ስለ ኤፎርት (EFFORT) ድርጅት ነው። ሁላችንም የምናውቀው የህወሃት መንግስትን ከመቆጣጠሩ በፊት ሃብት በመዝረፍ ነበር የሚያካመቸው። የእርዳታ እህል/መድሃኔት ወዘተ በመሸጥ፤ ባንክ በመዝረፍ ወዘተ። ደምበኛ የሽፍታ ስራ። ሁላችንም የምናውቀው ታሪክ ነው። አልፎ ተርፎ የሚደንቅ ታሪክም አይደልም ህወሓት በመሰረቱ ሽፍቶች ነበሩና።

ይህን ብለን ጉዳዩ ከሌላው ዝርፊያ እና ሙስና ክስተቶች ለፍርድ መቅረብ አለባቸው ብሎ መደምደም በቂ አይደለም! ይህ የውሸት ወይንም የማይበቃ መደምደምያ ነው።

ለኔ ዋናው መደምደምያ ሀገራችን ኢትዮጵያ በጥቂት ሽፍቶች ለ27 ዓመት ተገዝቶ ነበር ነው! ይህ እውነት በመጀመርያ ደረጃ የሚያስከሥሠው እኛን ነው! እንዴት ነው በነዚህ ትንሽ ቁጥር ያላቸው ሽፍቶች የተገዛነው የሚለውን ጥያቄ መመለስ አለብን። ይህን ጥያቄ ካልመለስን ወደ ፊት ይህ መትፎ ታሪካችንን እንደግማለን።

ጣት መጠቆም ብቻ ያብቃ። እንደገና እንዳንወድቅ እራሳችን ላይ ስራ እንስራ።

ኢትዮጵያን የሚገላት የአንድነት ኃይሉ ነው (ክፍል 3)

በደርግ ዘመን ብዙ የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካ ስራ ከሀገር ውጭ (በዲያስፖራ) ነበር የሚደረገው ሀገር ውስጥ በነፃነት መስራት ስለማይቻል።

በዚህ ጊዜ ሻዕብያ እና ህወሓት ከዲያስፖራ በርካታ ገንዘብ እና ሌላ ድጋር እየሰበሰቡ ግዙፍ ተቋማት ሆነው ኢትዮጵያን አንቀጠቀጡ።

የ«ኢትዮጵያዊነት» ኃይል ግን «ዴሞክራት» (ኢዲዩ) እና «ማርክሲስት» (ኢህአፓ፤ መኢሶን፤ ደርግ ወዘተ) ሆኖ ተከፋፍሎ ቆየ። ኤዲዩ እርስ በርስ ተከፋፍሎ እና ተጣልቶ በፍጥነት እራሱን ከፖለቲካ ዓለም አባረረ! ማርክሲስቶቹ እርስ በርስ ተፋጁ፤ ሀገሪቷን አሰቃዩ እና ፈትፍተው ለጎሳ ብሄርተኞቹ አጎረሱ።

እኛ ኢትዮጵያዊ ብሄርተኞች አንድ አላማ ኖሮን መተማመን፤ መስማማት፤ አብሮ መስራት፤ መተባበር እና መደራጀት አለመቻል በሽታችን አሁንም አንቆ ይዞናል።

አጸያፊ ግጭቶች ለተወሰነ ጊዜ ይቀጥላሉ

ብዙዎቻችን ለ27 ዓመታት በየ ክልሉ በዘውትር የሚካሄደውን የምናውቅ አይመስለኝም። የቤተሰቦቼ ሀገር ጨርጨር (ምዕራብ ሀረርጌ) እንደ ምሳሌ ተጠቅሜ ላስረዳ። ኢህአዴግ ስልጣን ክተቆጣጠረ ጀምሮ በየጊዜው «ነባሮቹን» (የጨርጨር ሙስሊም ኦሮሞዎች) እንወክላለን የሚሉ ጸንፈኛ ጎሰኛ እና ሙስሊም ተነስተው «መጤዎቹን» (ሙስሊም ኦሮሞ ያልሆኑት አማራ፤ ጉራጌ፤ ሶማሌ ወዘተ) በግድ ሙስሊም ሁኑ፤ ከሀገራችን ውጡ ወዘተ እያሉ ይነሳሉ። በሳውዲዎች ገንዘብ የሚደገፉ «ማድራሳዎች» (የጸንፈኛ እስልምና ትምሕርትቤትዎች) ይከፈታሉ ጽንፈኛ እስልምና ያስፋፋሉ። ጸንፈኛ ጎሰኝነት በስውር በየመንግስት መስሪያቤቱም ይንቀሳቀሳል «መጤውን» አባሩ ግደሉ ብሎ ይሰብካል። ይህ ጸንፈኝነት በየወቅቱ «መጤዎች» ላይ ጫና ይፈጠራል እስከ ሞት ያህል ጉዳት በየጊዜው ይደርሳል። እንደዚህ አይነት ክስተቶች ሲበዙ ፌደራል ፖሊስ ወይንም መከላከያ ይመጡና ጸንፈኞቹን አድነው አግኝነተው ያስሯቸዋል ግን አብዛኛው ጊዜ ይረሽኗቸዋል። ምርመራ፤ ፍርድ ቤት ወዘተ የለም። ዋና አቀነባባሪዎቹን ፈልገው ያጠፏቸዋል። ከዛ በኋላ ለተወሰነ ጊዜ ሁኔታው ይረጋጋል «መጤው» ትንሽ ሰላም ያገኛል። ግን ከትወሰነ ጊዜ በኋላ ጸንፈኞቹ እንደገና ይነሳሉ። አላለፉት 27 ዓመት ይህ ነበር የሚደጋገመው።

ከዚም አልፎ ተርፎ በለት ኑሮዋቸው «መጤዎች» ስለ ደህንነታቸው በትወሰነ ደረጃ ሁል ጊዜ ይጨንቃሉ። አባቶቻቸው ጭቋኝ የነበሩ ያማይፈለጉ «እንግዶች» እንደሆኑ እንዲሰማቸው ይደረጋል። እንደ ሁለተኛ ዜጋ ነው የሚታዩት። ማህበራዊ ችግር ከተፈጠረ ወይንም የህግ አስከባሪ ጉድለት ከመጣ ጉዳት ይደርስብናል ብለው ነው «መጤዎቹ» የለት ኑሮዋቸውን የሚኖሩት። በስጋት ነው የሚኖሩት። የከፋ ጊዜ ከመጣ ፌደራል ፖሊስ ወይንም መከላከያ ነው የሚያድንን ብለው ነው የሚያስቡት።

የህወሓት አሰራር እንዲህ ነበር በኦሮሚያ፤ ደቡብ፤ ቤኒሻንጉል፤ ሶማሌ ወዘተ ክልሎች። ፖሊሲአቸውን «ያዝ ለቀቅ» ብሎ መሰየም ይቻላል። ጎሰኝነትን በፖሊሲ ደረጃም ያራምዳሉ ጸንፈኛ ጎሰኝነት እንዲፈጠር እንዲኖር ያደርጋሉ። ግን ከቁጥጥራቸው ሲወጣ የወለዷቸውን ጸንፈኞች ያጠፏቸዋል እና እራሳቸውን እንደ የ«መጤው» ጠባቂ አድርገው ያቀርባሉ። «መጤውም» ምርጫ የለውም ለደህንነቱ ሁልጊዜ ወደ ፌደራል መንግስት ይመለከታል። ህወሓት የኖረው ይህን ክፉ ሚዛን ገንብቶ በመጠበቅ ነው።

አሁን በነ ጠ/ሚ አብይ አህመድ ዘመን ይህ አካሄድ አብቅቷል። በመጀመርያ ደረጃ ጎሰኝነትን ለመቀነስ ተነስተዋል። ሁለተኛ ደግሞ ሰላም፤ ፍቅር እና ፍትህ እንዲመጣ ነው የረዥም እቅዳቸው። በዚህ መሰረት ወንጀሎች እና ግጭቶች ሲፈጠሩ እንደ ድሮ የህወሓት አገዛዝ ገብተው አይረሽኑም። በህጋዊ መንገድ ጉዳዩን አጣርተው ፍትህ እና መፍትሄ በትክክሉ መንገድ ማድረስ ነው የሚፈልጉት። በዚህ መካከል ጸንፈኞች ፍርሃታቸው ቀንሶ ድሮ የማይደፍሩትን ያደርጋሉ። ወንጀሎች እና ግጭቶች ወዲያው አይቋረጡም መፍትሄ ቀስ ብሎ ይሆናል የሚገኝላቸው። በቅርቡ በሶማሌ፤ ቤኒሻንጉል፤ ሻሸመኔ ወዘተ የምናየው ይህ ነው። አልፎ ተርፎ በጠ/ሚ አብይ የግድያ ሙከራ ወይንም በስመኘው በቀለ ግድያ ዙርያም እንዲሁም ወደያው የፈጣን መልስ አልተገኘለትም። በህጋዊ ስነ ስርዓት እየተጣራ ነው (https://asfawdarguemeshal.blogspot.com/2018/07/blog-post_6.html)።

ከዚህ ሁሉም መካከል ደግሞ የአዲሱ ስርዓት አቅምን ማወቅ አለብን። የድሮ የህወሓት ርዝራዦች ገና ከመንግስት፤ መከላከያ፤ ፌደራል ፖሊስ፤ በተለይም ደህንነት ገና አልጸዱም ለማጽዳትም ረዥም ጊዜ ይፈጃል። እንኳን ሌላ የጠ/ሚ አብይን ደህንነት መጠበቅ እራሱ ከባድ ሆኗል። ስለዚህም ነው እነ አብይ በማንኛውም ስራ እንቅፋቶች እያገጠማቸው የሚሰሩት።

ስለዚህ ባሁኑ ጊዜ ከህወሓት የጠብ መንጃ ፍትህ-ቢስ አገዛዝ ወደ ጠ/ሚ አብይ አገዛዝ መሸጋገርያ ወቅት ገና ብዙ ወንጀል፤ ዘር ማጥፋት ሙከራዎች፤ ህዝባዊ ግጭቶች፤ ግድያዎች፤ ወዘተ ሳይቀጥሉ አይቀሩም። የጠ/ሚ አብይ መንግስት እስኪጠነክር ድርስ፤ የክልል ፖሊሶች እስኪጠነክሩ ድርስ፤ ህዝቡ እስኪረጋጋ ድርስ፤ ፖለቲከኞች እና ሌሎች መሪዎች እስኪረጋጉ እና ለጥያቄዎች መልስ እና አቅታጫ ማስያዝ እስኪችሉ ድርስ ይቀጥላል። የድሮ እንቅፋቶች እስኪነሱ ድርስ በርካታ ጉዳቶች ያጋጥሙናል። ከመታገስ እና አዲሱን መንግስት ባለን አቅም በተለይ በአቅም ግንባታ ደረጃ ከመርዳት በቀር ምንም ማድረግ አይቻልም።

ለተጎዱት ለተገደሉት በሙሉ ጸሎታችን ከነሱ ጋር ይሁን። የሁላችንም የተከማቸ የረዥም ዓመታት ኃጢአት ነውና ሀገራችንን በዚህ ሁኔታ እንድትሆን ያደረገው።

Short Memories!

Some of us seem surprised at comments by a certain political commentator, Muluwerq Kidanemariam, that given the current political atmosphere, Tigray Region might find it necessary to invoke article 39 of the constitution and exit Ethiopia. But given the history of the TPLF, such comments are nothing unusual and nothing to be alarmed about.

It seems that many have forgotten, or were too young to remember, the TPLF and EPRDF of the 1990's, particularly until the 2000 Ethio-Eritrean War. This was the peak of ethnic nationalism and anti-Ethiopian nationalist rhetoric in Ethiopia, sponsored and encouraged by the TPLF and EPRDF. TPLF supporters, arm in arm with their EPLF comrades, gleefully lorded it over us 'chauvinists'. It was de rigueur for EPRDF members and supporters to identify with their ethnicity first, and Ethiopia second, and reluctantly at that. Often us naïve and shell-shocked Ethiopian nationalists would during the course of a discussion ask a TPLF or OPDO/OLF supporter if they consider themselves Ethiopian, and the defiant answer would be that they are Tigrean or Oromo first, and then Ethiopian (maybe)!


EPRDF officials and supporters would often say that if by some improbable tragedy the TPLF/EPRDF would fall from power and the 'chauvinists' replace them, they would promptly exit Ethiopia. Their 'Ethiopianness' hung on a thread. This was the tone of Ethiopian politics during the 1990's, and this is merely what Ato Muluwerq has repeated in his interview. Nothing new!

During the Ethio-Eritrean war, things changed a little. The departure of EPLF officials and supporters from Ethiopian political circles resulted in a lowering of anti-Ethiopianism in Addis Ababa. In addition, the war effort required the EPRDF to mobilize a good degree of patriotism - Ethiopian patriotism - all around Ethiopia, even in Oromia, the region that the EPRDF claimed was most victimized by Ethiopian nationalism. The EPRDF were very pragmatic - they did what they needed to do to achieve their goal which was, via war, saving face over the EPLF. So pragmatic were they that they recruited former military officers of their arch-enemy Dergue into the Ethiopian military for the fight!

After the war, and leading up to the 2005 elections, the EPRDF began to shift from fervent anti-Ethiopian nationalism to a little more centrist position. Its anti-chauvinist rhetoric began to be accompanied by anti-'narrow nationalist' rhetoric. Eventually, driven by a more flexible Meles Zenawi, the EPRDF even tried the open 2005 elections, leaving itself vulnerable to the feared and hated chauvinist political forces. When the course of the elections did not go as planned, Meles reverted to form and raised the specter of anti-Tigrayan violence and even talked about genocide! Again, this is what we are seeing now - again, many TPLF supporters are interpreting the threat to the monopoly that the TPLF/EPRDF has on political power as an anti-Tigrayan pogrom!

After crushing the 2005 anti-government movement - with indispensable help from the opposition I might add - the ERPDF moved quickly to an agenda of political monopoly through economic growth - the China/East Asia 'developmental state' model. In the Ethiopian context, the EPRDF named this model 'lmatawi mengst'. The EPRDF figured that a focus on development would make the people forget about politics and, just as importantly, ethnicity. The developmental state was a bargain with the Ethiopian people - high economic growth in exchange for monopoly political power - and it was a great success for the EPRDF. Far more successful than it would have ever imagined. Any political opposition was squashed with impunity, but we, the masses, generally acquiesced, was we were to busy making money - or trying to.

During this time, the EPRDF continued moving slowly away from ethnic nationalism. The rhetoric about Tigrawi-first, Ethiopian-second became a distant memory. Instead, members and supporters of the EPRDF began to portray themselves as being 'more Ethiopian' than their opponents, including the 'chauvinists'! The term 'chauvinist' itself became passé in EPRDF circles, and was replaced by terrorists and anti-Ethiopians! What a change from the old days!

However, with time, the developmental state began to display its own problems. As elsewhere, for example China, the masses began to express intense dissatisfaction with the corruption of the ruling party and the resulting lack of civic and economic justice. This is a significant problem in and of itself. But in Ethiopia, it has been increased orders of magnitude because of ethnic nationalism. Because of ethnic nationalism, this dissatisfaction is expressed not just in civic terms, but ethnic terms, and as we all know, any conflict is greatly increased if ethnicity becomes a factor.

So now, the TPLF and its supporters see themselves faced with an existential crisis, and they don't seem to have anyone to help them figure out an innovative solution. So they retreat into old theories and clichés of their childhood, such as what Ato Muluwerq talks about in his interview.

This is not surprising, neither should it be alarming. But it is folly to expect the TPLF, a small partner in the EPRDF, to continue to manufacture solutions - good or bad - to Ethiopian political problems. Inevitably, they will reach a state of exhaustion - they might even be there now. Their never ending yearning for Meles, who had a way of assessing and finding a way out of problems, shows this. They should be relieved of this huge burden that we have saddled them with for decades. By 'we', I mean the general political opposition, especially those who consider ourselves Ethiopian nationalists. It is we who have failed the nation, and even though we have severely debilitated ourselves, we have no choice but to somehow grow up and do our fair share.

So let us not worry about the Ato Muluwerq's of this world. They are at their wits end, and for this I don't blame them. It us up to us to find a way out of this quagmire.

ማንን እንሰዋ

በ2012 ጠቅላላ ስብሰባቸው የቻይና ኮምዩኒስት ፓርቲ መሪዎች ለህልውናቸው ብለው በሙስና ላይ ታላቅ እርምጃ መውሰድ እንዳለባቸው ተረድተው የእርምጃ ውሳኔ ወሰዱ። እርምጃቸው ሺ ዢንፒንግን  መሪ (ፕሬዚደንት) መሾምና የጸረ ሙስና «ሚኒስቴር»፤ ክፍል ወይ ቢሮ ሳይሆን ሚኒስቴር» ማቋቋም ነበር። ፕሬዚደንት ሺ ሙስናንና ጸረ መልካም አስተዳደርን እዋገለሁ ዋናው ጉዳዬም አደርገዋለሁ በማለት ለምርጫ ቀረበ። የኮምዩኒስት ፓርቲ ሹማምንት ይህን አውቀው ተስማምተው መረጡት።

ልምን? የጸረ ሙስና ዘመቻ እራሳቸውን ሊጎዳ ሊያከስር ሊያሳስርም እንደሚችል እያወቁ እንዴት የጸረ ሙስና ዘመቻ እንዲካሄድ ፈለጉ? ምክነያቱ ሙስና ፓርቲውን (አባላቱን) እጅግ እየጎዳና ህልውናውን ሊያጠፋ እንደሚችል ስለተረዱ ነው። የተለያዩ መሪዎቻቸውም በዪፋ እንደዚ ብለው ግመው ተናግረው ነበር፡ « ፓርቲአችንም ሀገራችን በሙስና ምክነያት ሊፈርሱ ይችላሉ» ብለዋል።

ስለዚህ ፓርቲው ፈርሶ ሁላችንም ከምንሞት ሙስናን ቀንሰን ህዝባችንን አባብለን ፓርቲው ይትረፍ አብዛኞቻችን እንትረፍ ግን አንዳንዶቻችን በተለይ ሙስና ውስጥ እጅግ የሰመጡት ደግሞም የማንፈልጋቸው ባልደረቦቻችን ይውደቁ ይታሰሩ። ይህ ነበር የቻይና ኮምዩኒስት ፓርቲ ሹማምንት አስተሳሰብ ፕሬዚደንት ሺን ሲመርጡት። ሰውነታችን ሙሉ በሙሉ ከሚሞት ትንሽ እንድማ ነው።

ከመረጡት በኋላ ሃይሉን ማንቀሳቀስ ጀመረና አብዛኛው ካሰበው በላይ ደም ፈሰሰ። ብዙ ሰው ተሰወ። እንግዲህ እንደዚህ አይነቱ ሰፊ እቅድ ሁልግዜ እንደተጠበቀው አይሄድም። ሆኖም ፕሬዚደንት ሺ ተእልኮዋቸውን በሞላ ጎደል አሟሉ።

እንዲሁም በኢትዮጵያ ከህወሃት ጠቅላላ ስብሰባ የሚካሂደው በችይና ኮምሁኒስት ፓርቲ 2012 ስብሰባ የተካሄደው ነው። ሙስና እየገደለን እንደሆነ እናውቃለን፤ ሙስናን ማጥፋት አለበን፤ ግን ከማህላችን ማንን እንሰዋ?! ፖለቲካው በዚህ ዙርያ ነው። ስብሰባውም ሳምንታት የሚፈጀው ለዚህ ነው! ህወሃት መትረፍ ከፈለገ ይህን እርምጃ መውሰድ አለበት ግን ውሳኔው ከባድ ነው።

በኔ ሚስኪን እይታ የተወሰኑ ዋና ሹማምንት መውደቅ አለባቸው። እስር ይሁን በሙስና የተገኘውን ሃብት መንጠቅ ይሁን ተገቢውና ውጤታማ እርምጃ አላውቅም ግን ህዝቡ ይህን ይጠብቃል። መዋቀሩም ይህ መድሃኒት ያስፈልገዋል። የወደፊት ሙሰኞችን ተጠንቀቁ ይቅርባትሁ የሚለው ምልእክት በትክክል የሚደርሳቸው ታላላቅ ሹማምንት ከወደቁ ብቻ ነው።

ከዛም ቀጥሎ ግን ከዚህ በፊት እንደጠቀስኩት የሙስናን ደረጃ በቋሚነት ዝቅ አርጎ ለመጠበቅ የ100% መመሪያውን ኢህአዴግ መሰረዝ አለበት። ከፌደራል ምክር ቤት እስከ ቀበሌ የኢህአዴግ ሹማምንት ስራውን በደምብ ካልሰራ በህዝብ ድምጽ ብልጫ ከስልጣን ሊወርድ እንደሚችል ማወቅ አለበት። ይህ ነው ዋናው የሙስና መቋቋሚያ መንገድ።

Where the TPLF went wrong

2009/1/23 (Ethiopian calendar)

2016/10/3 (European calendar)

[Note: An Amharic version of this post will appear sometime!]

(pdf version)

A lot has been written about this over the past 25 years, but it doesn't hurt repeating, especially given today's political circumstances in Ethiopia. The TPLF's biggest historical mistake was interpreting its coming to power in 1991 as a full mandate from the vast majority of Ethiopians and assuming it meant a complete rejection of everything that preceded it. This mistaken assumption involved a typically modern Ethiopian exercise in black and white or zero sum thinking.

Basically, this is how the thought process worked... The Haile Selassie government fell, not because it failed to make some sensible reforms, but because it failed to make all the radical changes demanded of it by the students movement. The fall of the Dergue government had nothing to do with the Cold War, a failed Communist economy, or the war with Somalia, but because Ethiopia was a prison of nationalities that had to be liberated. The rise of the TPLF had nothing to do with the end of the Cold War and a bankrupt regime, but because the TPLF and its ethnic ideology best represented the interests of a majority of Ethiopians. The TPLF blinded itself to obvious facts in a bid to convince itself of its monopoly on truth and ability to rule Ethiopia.

Thus, after gaining power, the TPLF, in the form of the EPRDF, began a ruling style that involved continually trying to do the radical and the impossible, its hubris deluding it into believing that it was special enough to do anything politically.

This mindset is what emboldened the EPRDF to saddle Ethiopia (and itself) with perhaps the most radical ethnic based constitution in world history. With a little more maturity, it would have realized that this constitution was not only unpopular and fundamentally at odds with the interests of a large section of the population, but so radical, untested, and risky that there was a good chance it would in the future make governing impossible. For everyone except the EPRDF and other ethnic nationalists, it was clear that a more moderate constitution would have easily satisfied all constituencies, including ethnic nationalists and made governing far easier for the EPRDF.

Building on the constitution, the EPRDF embarked on an ethnic policy that can only be described as playing with fire. It engaged in policies (such as official identification by ethnicity) and rhetoric ('reactionaries' and 'narrow nationalists') that emphasized differences among Ethiopians and diminished commonalities. It thought that it could promote ethnic nationalism and at the same time control ethnic strife, knowing full well that its ethnic political base, Tigray, was composed of a small minority! An impossibly delicate formula if there ever was one. However, thanks to various factors, especially the sad state of the Ethiopian nationalist elite, the EPRDF has managed so far to survive on this knife's edge.

But the fundamentals remain wrong, and this explains today's smoldering dissent. It's a political reality that a people can tolerate far more oppression from their own ethnic group or in a non-ethnic context than they can from another ethnic group. The TPLF knows this quite well, having leveraged the political tool of ethnicity to its fullest during its liberation struggle. Yet, the EPRDF continued a policy of promoting ethnic nationalism while real power and perception of real power, remained in the hands of the TPLF. This has inevitably resulted in widespread resentment against the TPLF and Tigray. This was all predictable from the beginning; there have been ever increasing signs of it in the past two decades, yet hubris has prevented the EPRDF from changing course.

Note that this policy from the beginning was the antithesis of what is best for Tigray. A small minority can flourish in a multi-ethnic society, but not in a society where ethnic division and tension dominate, since the minority is dependent on migration and integration to prosper. The region of Tigray, like all the small ethnicities in Ethiopia, would do best in a country that is more united than divided. Yet, the ideology of the TPLF (and its big brother EPLF) was so ingrained that they basically ignored this danger and continued promoting ethnically divisive policies.

To be fair, the EPRDF did eventually realize the seriousness of the problem. Part of the reasons for the full mobilization of party resources towards the developmental state project ('lemat', for the masses) that begin during the mid part Prime Minister Meles' tenure was to mitigate ethnic division. The rhetoric of economic development was ramped up as a political tool to promote civic nationalism – to give all parts of the country something in common to unite around – and counter the obvious damage of ethnic nationalism. But of course the economy cannot by itself bring down ethnic boundaries and increase civic nationalism. Inter-ethnic integration, which the EPRDF's constitution essentially prevents, is the only way to do so.

The above is just a small list of the radical and reckless policies of the EPRDF over the past 25 years, which aros a consequence of the circumstances around its rise to power, including the absence of an opposing elite power to act as a moderating influence. Now, what does this history teach us about what is happening today? What is happening today?

Well, we continue to hear from hardline EPRDF leaders the same old rhetoric about reactionaries and narrow nationalists – the same old hubris. But there are moderates in the EPRDF and TPLF who have long ago come to realize the folly in their fundamental assumptions. These moderates and hardliners are discussing behind closed doors how to address the current revolt. The moderates are right and sensible, of course, but what has always handicapped them is external leverage. They need a strong Ethiopian nationalist movement and elite, the opposing elite power which I mentioned above, with power on the ground, that they can count on as a foil for the hardliners. They need a political partner on the other side, in other words, so that they can say to the hardliners, “Look, you've tried it your way, and now there is an opposition that your hardline policies cannot dislodge. It's time for you to step aside and let us negotiate a new system of governance.”

Unfortunately, this Ethiopian nationalist movement is not yet there. The soft and hard ethnic nationalists in Oromia who are against TPLF domination have been doing their part for years, but not the Ethiopian nationalists. Now we have the uprisings in Amhara Region, and this is a huge step in the right direction, but there is no organization yet. It is important that these uprisings soon coalesce into a tangible political movement so that it can work with the moderates in EPRDF to find a way out if its quagmire. Failing this, we have to count on the EPRDF reforming by itself. It's a tall order for any organization, especially on with the historical baggage of the TPLF.