A Prudent Strategy for the Ethiopian Centre

I write this now because soon the TPLF will be history, and we will have to proceed with building a peaceful and stable Ethiopian political environment... Before the TPLF's recent acts of terrorism, many Ethiopia politicans and pundits that consider themselves centrists were attacking Prime Minister Abiy's administration for its inability to deal with ever increasing instances of ethnic cleansing, especially anti-Amhara ethnic cleansing, taking place throughout the country. Many of these politicians and pundits are now fully on side with Abiy on the issue of the TPLF insurrection.

A year and a half ago, I tried to makes sense of the (incessant) criticism of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his government. Much of the criticism has to do with two points:

1. The federal and Addis Ababa government's real or perceived bias in favour of Oromos in handing out services and entitlements such as land, employment, etc.

2. The federal government's not preventing repeated instances of ethnic murder and ethnic cleansing of mostly Amharas but also others in Oromia, Benishangul, and SNNP regions.

Before I continue, I ask you to keep in mind the following quote: “When people realize things are going wrong, there are two questions they can ask. One is, ‘What did we do wrong?’ and the other is, ‘Who did this to us?’ The latter leads to conspiracy theories and paranoia. The first question leads to another line of thinking: ‘How do we put it right?’” Bernard Lewis

Of course, criticism has its place and is sometimes necessary. But the context has to be right. In today's Ethiopian political context, virulent criticism of Abiy to the point of advocating for his ouster (along with ethnic nationalists and the TPLF) simply does not make sense. Let me explain.

Fanning anti-Abiy sentiment can have one of two goals:

1. Creating a situation where Abiy steps down or is ousted from power.

2. Putting Abiy under pressure to do more to get rid of Oromo bias and stop ethnic cleansing.

Let's address the first goal. In a scenario where Abiy is ousted from power, it's of course important to consider who or what will step into the vacuum! Does the centre have any political organization or structure that is ready to take over power? The answer is clearly no. The centre has no party, no organization, no civic society, no deep state network that is ready to take over leadership of the country. In fact, in terms of organization and structure, the ethnic nationalists are much more organized than the centre. Thus, if Abiy is ousted from power, we will have a power vacuum which will be filled with chaos, and the ethnic nationalists will have the advantage over the centre. Clearly Abiy being forced from power goes against the interests of the centre. Those politicians and pundits who don't like his policies or execution of policies must first establish a viable alternative organization and power structure before advocating for Abiy's ouster. Otherwise it will be 1991 again.

The second goal seems more realistic, but it isn't... Undoubtedly, criticism from centre politicians and pundits puts pressure on Abiy. Along with the criticism from the public at large, which feels more and more vulnerable with the increasing incidents of ethnic cleansing. The question is how can he respond to this pressure. Is the pressure enough for Abiy to start doing more about Oromo bias and tackling ethnic cleansing? My answer is no. For two reasons. First, the ethnic extremism embedded in the OPDO has been passed on to the Prosperity Party's Oromia branch. From municipal mayors to police chiefs to rank and file civil servants all the way up to top party officials, there are various degrees of ethnic extremism. If one takes a town like Shashemene, the mayor, police chief, kebele and woreda officials, etc., are all some some shade or another of ethnic extremists. In a situation like this, Abiy cannot simply replace all of these officials. That would be politically dangerous. He has to make due with what he has. The second reason is that the ethnic extremists have organizations that are powerful and capable of troubling the government. They can inflict terror, ethnic cleansing, produce protests, sabotage, etc. Because of this, Abiy's government has to tread carefully in managing ethnic extremism, especially Oromo ethnic extremism. Expecting the government to be able to simply purge all ethnic extremists is unrealistic. For these two reasons, pressure from the centre on the Abiy government to put an end to Oromo bias and ethnic cleansing, though somewhat useful, cannot fix the problem. He simply cannot respond fully to such pressure.

So, if Abiy's ouster from power is not good for the centre, and if putting pressure on him is not that helpful, what can centre politicians and pundits do to bring about the desirable result of ending ethnic cleansing and reducing Oromo bias (the latter is not for me a very big issue - we should accept Oromo bias for the near future)? What centre politicians and pundits can do is start and focus on the difficult work of creating organizations, parties, lobbies, civil societies, and deep state networks that can exert real power in the country and counteract ethnic nationalism. This includes joining current institutions, including the government and the ruling party, and exerting influence from within. This is a critical aspect to the struggle.

It is only via a critical mass of organization that ethnic nationalism and radicalism can be tackled in a prudent and effective way, by the use of overwhelming and targetted soft power. The federal government alone cannot do this because ethnic nationalism is too embedded in government institutions and amongst the public. So I would expect our politicians and pundits to remove their focus from complaining about Abiy and his government, to building a centrist political and civic force that is able to peacefully, prudently, and effectively combat ethnic radicalism

ድላችን ጦር ሜዳ ላይ እንዳይቀር

ህወሓት በጦር ሜዳ መሸነፉ የሚቀር አይመስለኝም። ጊዜ ይፈጅ ይሆናል፤ በርካታ ጉዳት ይደርስ ይሆናል፤ ግን የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ህወሓትን ይቆጣጠረዋል። ትልቁ ጥያቄ ግን «ከዝያስ?» ነው። የፌደራል መንግስት ብቻውን በትግራይ ክልልም በመላው ኢትዮጵያም ሰላም ሊያሰፍን ይችላል ወይ?

የሚችል አይመስለኝም። የጠ/ሚ ዓቢይ አህመድ መንግስት ላለፉት ሁለት ዓመታት ከባድ የፖለቲካ ስራ ሰርቷል። መንግስቱ ብዙ ነገር ቢሳካለትም የቀሩት ችግሮች ብዙና ከባድ ናቸው። ሽብር፤ የዘር ጭቆና፤ ማፈናቀልና ግድያ ቀጥሏል። መንግስት እነዚህን ችግሮች እስካሁን ሊፈታ አልቻለም። (አንዳንዶች መንግስት እንኳን ሊፈታው የችግሩ አካል ነው ይባላል ግን ለኔ ይህ ስሜታዊነት ነው።)

መንግስት እነዚህን ችግሮች ለምን መፍታት አልቻልም ለሚለው ጥያቄ መልሴ ብቻውን ሊፈታው ከአቅሙ በላይ ነው ነው። መንግስት ችግሮቹን ለመፍታት የህዝብ ጠንካራ ስሜታዊ ሳይሆን ተግባራዊ ትብብር ያስፈልገዋል ግን ይህን እስካሁን በበቂ ደረጃ አላገኝም። 

የህዝብ ተሳትፎ አስፈላጊነትን ለመረዳት ያህል እስቲ የህወሓትን ትግል እንመልከት። የህወሓት አመራር፤ አባላት፤ የአባል አክስትና አጎት፤ አያት፤ ልጅ፤ ወዘተ ናቸው ለህወሓት የሚታገሉት!! ለዚህም ነው ስምንት ሚሊዮን ህዝብ ወክላለው የሚል ድርጅት ሀገር ሙሉን የገዛው እና ዛሬ የሀገር መንግስት ሊሞግት የቻለው። ሁላችንም የናውቀው ግን ለመናገር የሚያሳፍረን ነገር ነው። ሀውሓት ከጫካ እስከ መንግስት እስከ መቀለ ስደት በሄደበት ጉዞ ታላቅ የተቀናበረ የምሁራን፤ የሊሂቃን፤ የነጋዴና የህዝብ ድጋፍ ኖሮት ነው።

የጠ/ሚ ዓቢይ መንግስት ግን እንደዚህ አይነት የተቀነባበረ የተግባር ድጋፍ በበቂ ደረጃ የለውም። ላለፉት 50 ዓመታት ጣቅላላ የ«አንድነት» ፖለቲካ ጎራው እንደ ህወሓት ወይንም ሻቢያ ትልቅ የፖለቲካ «ማሺን» ኖሮት አያውቅም። ለዚህ ነው ህወሓት በቁጥር ትንሽ ሆኖ የአንድነት ጎራውን ለሰላሳ ዓመት በቀላሉ የተቆጣጠረው።

የአንድነት ፖለቲካ ጎራው ከዚህ ግድ መማር አለበት። የሀገር ህልውና ጉዳይ ነው፤ ካሁን ወድያ በመንግስት ብቻ መመካት አይቻልም። እንደ ህወሓት እና ሻቢያ በሁሉም የህብረተሰብ ክፍል የተሟላ የፖለቲካ ማሺን ያስፈልገዋል። ሁላችንም ከነ አክስት አጎቶቻችን በተናጠል ሳይሆን በተቀነባበረ መልኩ ተሳትፈን አብረን መስራት አለብን። በዚህ መንገድ ለአንድነትና ለሰላም ፖለቲካ ከታገልን ስኬታማ እንሆናልን። እንኳን ትናንሽ ተቀናቃኞች እንደ ህወሓት የዓለም ግዙፍ ሀገራትንም መቋቋም እንችላለን። አለበለዛ ለመንግስት ብቻ ትተነው የራሳችን ተሳትፎ በተናጥል የወሬ ድጋፍ መስጠት ከሆነ እድላችን አነስተኛ ነው የሚሆነው።

The Solution To The 'Weak Centre'

As I wrote in my previous blog post, it would normally take decades to recover from the damage - the generational loss - brought about by two revolutions. Given our political realities today, the debilitated Ethiopian political centre does not have decades to recover. It must strengthen and counter-balance the ethnic nationalist elite as soon as possible, in order to bring about any semblance of rationality and maturity to Ethiopian politics.

The shortest route of recover for the centre is for the wealthier classes, especially the business class, to assert itself in politics, but in purely a realpolitik manner. The main goal of course being less conflict and violence ridden politics. To achieve this goal, ethnic politics must be reduced - ethnic politics - especially ethnic federalism - is by theory and practice (28 years of it) and conflict and violence producing machine. Note here that it is not ethnic and local rights that need to be reduced, it is ethnic politics - I will say more on this later. What is realpolitik about this? It is of course in the strong interests of the business class that our politics moves away from ethnic strife! Peace, the ability to work and conduct business anywhere as first class citizens, security, etc., is what makes the business class more prosperous. An ethnic conflict ridden society on the other hand is a danger for business owners. So clearly, it is in the interests of the business class to work for a more united and less ethnically divided country.

Yes, it is in their interests, but is the Ethiopian business class capable of intervening successfully in politics? Of course, like all other segments of the elite, the business class has been decimated by revolution and is, for all intents and purposes, and upstart trading class. Nevertheless, its all we have. And it is wealthy. It has more than enough money to greatly influence politics. The top ten richest business owners in Addis Ababa can easily and without much pain create and fund think tanks, charities, media, political lobbies, and other influencing organizations to the amount of billions of birr. They have the money, but do understand the urgency and do they have the know-how? No, but they'll have to get it - soon. They stand to lose a lot if they continue to leave politics to the ideologues.

Here's a simple blueprint of how the business class can slowly begin to influence politics. The primary goal is a more peaceful politics.The main intermediate goal is achieving long lasting influence. This is done by creating charities (for cultivating a good relationship with the population), think tanks (to help rebuild a decent political elite), political lobbies (to influence politicians), and media. All these organizations should treat all political groups equally. Donations should be made to all, for specific peace building goals, of course. There should be as much as possible no discrimination, except perhaps against the most extreme political groups. The strategy should be 'make no enemies'. The political platform should be based on this, with two simple points: 1) All Ethiopians should be able to live as first class citizens everywhere and 2) Afan Oromo should become a national language - all federal services should be available in Afan Oromo and it should be taught in all educational institutions. No sloganeering against ethnic rights or even against ethnic nationalism. No silly equating ethnic nationalism with discrimination and racism. The approach should be empathetic and realistic, with a long term view of influence and snatching our politics away from violent ideologues.

This simple blueprint should allow the business classes to steadily increase their influence among political circles. In short order, politicians will be knocking at their door for more funds, and thus be willing to fulfill the business class' agenda, which is exactly what we want. Politicians will begin to be influence more by realpolitik than by ideology. This is fundamentally what will help transition our politics from violence to peace.

The Weak Centre

The weakness of the political centre continues to be by far the most important and fundamental problem in Ethiopia's politics. The political centre has numbers but its political elite, organization, and power are not concomitant to its numbers. It is severely underrepresented in the political sphere. This has resulted in a distortion in our politics - a significant portion of the population has little or no representation and power, while the rest - the ethnic nationalist population - is well represented and disproportionately powerful. This distortion is what drives the chaos in Ethiopian politics.

What is the political centre? The centre, in brief, believes in citizenship rights - that the country and its regions belong equally to all citizens and that no region belongs more to certain ethnic groups than others. At the same time, the centre, accepting Ethiopian political reality, supports ethnic rights and local autonomy, while giving primacy to citizenship rights. In other words, there is no problem if Oromia is dominated by Oromo language, culture, etc. by virtue of demographics and history, but the land of Oromia should belong equally to all. This, I think, sums up the basic beliefs of the political centre.

There are many examples that illustrate how the political centre is woefully underrepresented in terms of political elite, leadership, and power. Consider for example, Addis Ababa, where conservatively 80% of the population is centrist. This huge portion of Addis Ababa has no political/civic organization and power to speak of and has had none for decades. It has no leadership to call its own. It has no elite to speak of. The parties that claim to represent the population of Addis Ababa, such as Ezema, are, try as they might, small, weak, and incapable. The masses of Addis Ababa continue to view themselves as subjects ruled by leadership imposed upon them. For 27 years, they were ruled by the TPLF, and now by the ODP. They blithely discuss which was/is better! They have no notion that they should rule themselves!

This weakness of the political centre is not accidental. It is a result of the past 50 years of political conflict, during which the centre fought bitterly against itself - the 1974 revolution and the following White and Red Terrors - decimating its elite. The culmination of the centre's political suicide was the 1991 revolution, led by ethnic nationalists, who simply stepped into the vacuum left by the political centre. Such was the collapse of the centre that it even surprised the ethnic nationalists who fought against the centre for so long. Only a year or so before the revolution, the EPLF, TPLF, et al were hoping for a negotiated settlement with the central government. Instead, they were handed complete power. This is the history that explains today's weak political centre. The centrist population today remains haunted by its history - its masses are loath to get into politics of any kind.

On the other hand, the political periphery - ethnic nationalists - are well represented in Ethiopian politics. For 28 years they have ruled Ethiopian essentially unopposed, as the centre has been incapable of real opposition. The ethnic nationalists have a relatively strong elite and political/civic organizations and concomitant power. They push their agenda steadily, knowing, from 28 years of experience, that the centre is incapable of responding.

This has resulted in an awful distortion in Ethiopian politics. One political viewpoint - ethnic nationalism - is well represented - while the other - the political centre - is not. Because of this distortion, the ethnic nationalists continually overplay their hand, and the centre, unable to respond, continues to have its masses more and more alienated and ripe for radicalism and revolution.

One example of such radicalism can be found in today's Amhara nationalism, which is a direct outgrowth of the inability of the centre's elite to adequately represent its population. Another example is a recent development - many Addis Ababans kneejerk hatred of anything Oromo, ostensibly a result of token Oromo favouritism, but fundamentally a result of the insecurity and shame of Addis Ababans, who know that they continue to be dominated by 'others' because of their inability to organize along their interests.

For Ethiopia's political conflicts to be solved, Ethiopia's political distortion must be corrected. The centre's political elite must reconstitute itself and the centre's masses must be represented concomitant to their numbers. If this does not occur, ethnic nationalists will dominate politics to the point that the underrepresented masses of the political centre will radicalize and revolt.

How can Ethiopia's political centre rise up again? How can it pull itself up by its bootstraps? There is no magic formula of course. An elite devastated by one revolution takes decades to reconstitute - this elite has been devastated by two. It will take a long time to fix the damage. But there is a possible solution in the short/medium term. I'll talk about that in the next article.

ኢትዮጵያን የሚገላት የአንድነት ኃይሉ ነው (ክፍል 1)

ባለፈው ኢትዮ-ኤርትራ ጦርነት የኤርትራ ዲያስፖራ እንደልማዳቸው እየተሯሯጡ ለሀገራቸው ገንዘብ እያዋጡ ነበር። ምን ያህል አዋጡ? ልምሳሌ ያህል፤ በአንድ ቀን ከአንድ ከተማ ሲአትል (ዋሺንግተን ስቴት) አንድ ሚሊዮን የአሜሪካ ዶላር አዋጥተዋል! ከዋሺንግተን ዲሲ አይነቱ ብዙ ኤርትራዊ ያለበት ከተማ ምን ያህል እንደተዋጣ ባላውቅም መገመት ይቻላል።

ተወዳጁ «ኢትዮጵያዊነትን» የወከለው ቅንጅት ለሰላም እና ዴሞክራሲ ፓርቲ መሪዎቹ ከተፈቱ በኋላ ሰሜን አሜሪካ መጥተው ለወራት ቆዩ። ከመላው ሰሜን አሜሪካ የሚኖር ኢትዮጵያዊያን ከአንድ ሚሊዮን ዶላር በታች ሰብስበው (እና እርስ በርስ ተጣልተው) ተመለሱ!

የአንድነት ኃይሉ እርስ በርስ አለመስማማት እና አለመደራጀት ኢትዮጵያን ይገላል።

«የዜግነት ፖለቲካ ይስፈን» ብለን እንጮሃለን ግን አልተደራጀንም!

መቼም «ከእንቁላል ውስጥ» ያሉት እነ ጠ/ሚ አብይ በሙሉ አቅማቸው ኢትዮጵያዊነትን ለማጠንከር እየጣሩ ነው። በዚህ መንገድ እንደሚቀጥሉም ይታወቃል።

አሁን በኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካ ውስጥ ያለው ትልቅ ጉድለት ነገር በኢትዮጵያዊነት የምናምን ፖለቲከኛ፤ ልሂቃን እና ብዙሃን በአግባቡ አለመደራጀቱ ነው። «የዜግነት ፖለቲካ ይስፈን» ብለን እንጮሃለን ግን አልተደራጀንም!! እንኳን በሚሊዮኖች የምቆጥር በመቶ ሺዎች የሚቆጥር አባል ያለው ድርጅት የለንም። ታድያ ሌሎች የዜግነት ፖለቲካ አይሰራም ብለው እንዲያምኑ የሚያደርጋቸው እኛ ነን ማለት ነው!

እነ ግንቦት 7 ስሙ። ቶሎ ብላችሁ የዜግነት ፖለቲካ አራምዱ። አባላት እና መሪዎች በሰፊው መልምሉ። የመዋቅር መዘርጋት ስራ ካሁኑኑ ጀምሩ። ጊዜ ይፈጃል ግን ጊዜ የለንምና።