Brief Note on Ethiopia and the West: Realism and Credibility

Over the last year or so, we have all seen the West - USA, EU, and some allies - engage openly in unrelenting hybrid warfare against Ethiopia via their proxy, the TPLF rebels. They have made no attempts to hide their intentions, no attempts to equivocate or pretend to be balanced. It has been all out war. If the Ethiopian government wins the war, and it certainly looks that way today, how should Ethiopia manage its relationship with the West.

In my opinion, Ethiopia has to follow the standard geopolitical path of realism. Realism would dictate that Ethiopia has to realistically assess its interests and those of the West, and engage work together with the West where the interests coincide. Just as, for example, Russia or China work closely with the West on many matters. Ethiopia should not, out of emotion and the need for revenge, fail to rationally assess its relationship with the West.

On the other hand, and this, I think, is crucial, Ethiopia has to adhere to the other standard tenet of geopolitics, and that is credibility. The Ethiopian government must favour and reward those allies who stood by Ethiopia in its fight against the TPLF and the West, and it must punish the West for its actions. The details of how this is done are of course to be studied and will evolve, but Ethiopia has to be seen to be able to reciprocate credibly, and to follow through on its rhetoric credibly.