The TPLF's Long Suicide

 "...the TPLF and, dare I say, a significant portion of the Tigrean elite is in the midst of an identity crisis imposed upon them by unfortunate historical circumstances. The advent of Marxism, the 1974 revolution, the Dergue's terrible misgovernance, etc., led to the birth of a TPLF with an outlook that stood firmly against the long term interests of Tigreans. Tigray, being a small, industrious, out-migratory region, stands to benefit from a citizenship based federalism - a multicultural and decentralized federalism but one in which the citizen, not ethnicity, is primary. Ethnic federalism goes completely against the interests of Tigray, because it results in Tigreans not being able to freely live and work outside their region. Yet the TPLF and many Tigrean intellectuals still support ethnic federalism!"

In 1991, the TPLF, a typically radical and stubborn Ethiopian Marxist party, instead of revising what was clearly a mistaken ideology, doubled down! It hoisted on Ethiopia an extremist and radical constitution, the type of which does not exist anywhere else in the world. But Meles Zenawi and co. had to govern, and to do so, they decided to concoct the impossible 'revolutionary democracy' ideology, which in essence depended solely on the TPLF being the sole power hegemon in Ethiopia.

The TPLF's assumption that it could remain the sole power in Ethiopia was of course completely unrealistic. Ethnic politics inflames ethnic tensions, and eventually the largest ethnic groups assert themselves against minorities, particularly against minorities that are viewed as being dominant or wealthy. This is inevitable. This brings us to the TPLF's second false assumption - that it could hold the Oromo and Amhara at bay by fueling their competition against each other. This was of course a pipe dream. The system set the TPLF up as not just a political target, but an ethnic target. And given the environment of ethnic competition or hate, the nature of the grievance would be deadly. Far deadlier than, say, class grievance. And that's what eventually happened. The "Oromo" and the "Amhara" ousted the "Tigray", as per the TPLF's constitution!

With the advent of the EPRDF's forced reform in 2018, the TPLF got a chance to, again, revise its old suicidal ideology in favour of one that benefitted its Tigray constituency. But it could not overcome its stubborn pride, a pride built upon a perceived military victory over the Dergue, and upon 27 years of ruling Ethiopia as a minority while lording it over all other political competitors. This is understandable. To expect the TPLF, which had its distorted mindset reinforced via political and economic success for decades, to change was and is unrealistic. Modern Ethiopia produces yet another unreformable political prodigal.

There are lessons to be learned from the story of the TPLF, and the most important point is that the lesson learner is not the TPLF but those at the centre of the Ethiopian political spectrum. The most important lesson, I think, is to always err on the side of moderation. The best, that is the most peaceful, politics requires moderation and self reflection, giving the benefit of the doubt to other points of view, and giving primacy to no ideology except peace. Let us at least learn something from the tragic story of the TPLF.