On NAMA Strategies

One of the National Movement of Amhara's (NAMA) strategies seems to be to out-ghetto Oromo nationalists, so to speak. That is, to demonstrate political positions and attitudes that are as radical or even more radical than Oromo nationalists. Simple examples - NAMA leadership and intellectuals have made statements in support of Article 39 and of maintaining ethnic identification on kebele id cards. And apparently at a recent NAMA meeting, supporters publicly voiced the idea of evicting Oromos living on Oromia zones in Amhara Region.

The idea behind this strategy, it seems to me, is that taking extreme positions, which, by the way, have no acceptance from the Amhara masses, will help neutralize Oromo and other ethnic nationalists by restoring the political balance. The NAMA view is that Oromo nationalists have been 'coddled' for too long and now have too much political power now, and one of the ways for NAMA to counteract that is by showing strength through extremism. Basic tit-for-tat strategy.

The problem with this is that it is based on an erroneous and simplistic understanding of the phenomenon of ethnic nationalism in a multi-ethnic nation. The goal of ethnic nationalism is to tear away at the centre, weaken it, and take power away from it to the periphery, which is various ethnic nationalisms. Adding 'another' ethnic nationalism to this actually further weakens the centre and strengthens all ethnic nationalist movements.

A further factor that NAMA doesn't seem to consider is the asymmetric nature of ethnic relations in Ethiopia. The Amhara live in large numbers in various regions, while the Oromo do not.

Given this, Oromo nationalists would much rather have a weak or empty centre and deal with a strong Amhara nationalist movement. This is their perfect scenario, in which all Oromos, including moderate ones, will congregate to Oromo nationalism, making it the only game in Oromia, so to speak. They will negotiate tit for tat agreements with Amhara nationalism and have their Oromo homeland.

What about issues that Oromo nationalists and Amhara nationalists do not agree on, such as Amharas in Oromia, and the case of Addis Ababa? With all Oromos on board, Oromo nationalists will not give an inch on this, and there will be conflict, either overt or covert. The main victims, given the population distribution I mentioned above, will be Amharas and other ethnic groups in Oromia and in Addis Ababa. And if NAMA has a vision of being able to carry out a TPLF 2.0 and forcing itself on the whole country, well, I think we all realize how realistic that is.

Now, I think we should take a step back and ask ourselves 'why'. Why does NAMA exist and why does it take the positions and attitudes in does? In order to reach any kind of understanding and solution to the issues at hand, this question has to be the focus. As I've written about this in my blog, for me, there are two major reasons: 1) The upheaval and resulting weakness of Ethiopian nationalism (or 'the centre') over the past 50 years, and 2) accumulated resentment for the treatment of the Amhara, including by Amhara 'traitors', over the past 27 years, and the resulting grievance and inferiority complex. NAMA is simply an outgrowth of this. The second factor we can do little about - time will heal wounds. But the first we must work hard with all our might to correct, as fixing that - strengthening the centre tangibly via political parties and institutions - is a sine qua non for the survival of Ethiopia.