"Naive Abiy Supporters..."

A lot of our political chattering class, and dare I say the general population, has become apprehensive, suspicious, or even downright hostile towards Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. That's fine, but as usual, the conversation around this issue is neither intelligent nor constructive - it has devolved into a schoolyard argument over Maradona vs Pele or some such silliness.

I submit the following hopefully intelligent and constructive approach to the issue. Either Abiy is:

1) Competent but under severe pressure from ethnic nationalists who hold significant power within his party and Oromia Regional government
2) Under severe pressure but incompetent
3) A secret Oromo ethnic nationalist who's been fooling us all along

Which of the above really does not matter! Because no matter which is the case, the only way forward is for the Ethiopan nationalist political class to organize itself into a powerful, well funded, and tactically intelligent movement. This movement must have the following characteristics:

1) Aim to reduce ethnic nationalism
2) Aim to bring about a citizenship based constitution
3) Reason that ethnic federalism is a not an ideological problem but a practical one - it has been empirically proven to be a constant source of conflict and might cause a failed state
4) Take very moderate and measured positions so as to avoid being a target, and to avoid costly mistakes
5) Cooperate fully and more importantly show and communicate that it is cooperating fully with the government
6) Engage a competent and even clever communication strategy
7) Engage a mass membership and infiltrate all institutions and regions in the country, as all political lobbies do.

Now let's see how this movement can reduce conflict and bring about a peaceful citizenship-based politics no matter what Abiy is:

1) Abiy is competent but under severe ethnic nationalist pressure - the Ethiopian nationalist organization will bolster him from the other side and strengthen the centre, and this will help Abiy overcome the ethnic nationalists.

2) Abiy is incompetent and under severe pressure - the Ethiopian nationalist organization will tangibly help Abiy manage the pressure and provide candidates to work within Abiy's government. It will also present itself or an associate party as a competent alternative to Abiy in the next election.

3) Abiy is a secret ethnic nationalist - the Ethiopian nationalist organization will slowly and tactfully force him towards its agenda or wrest power away from him.

So no matter what, the only and necessary solution to Ethiopia's current political predicament is for the Ethiopian nationalist political camp to overcome its disastrous 50 year history and organize itself into a serious movement.

If this is the case, why are we spending so much time talking about whether to love or hate Abiy? When whether we love or hate him doesn't matter in the end?

I submit that this is a continuation of Ethiopian nationalist 'opposition' politics of the past 40 years. We are woefully disorganized. From the EDU to the Socialists to Kinijit, we have an endemic disease of infighting. While the likes of the EPLF and TPLF formed strong, competent, and well-funded (raising tens of millions of dollars per year), we spent our time nitpicking our differences and blaming Ethiopia's problems on our 'enemies', instead of taking responsibility for our failures. So, even today, in order to avoid facing our failures, in order to avoid facing our shame, we focus on playing the blame game. Blame Abiy, or blame ethnic nationalists, or blame Ginbot 7, or blame NAMA, and on and on.

But it appears things have come to a head. The TPLF is gone, the field is open, but severe conflict seems around the corner. We Ethiopian nationalists simply have to organize ourselves now. We have to overcome our decades long disease of disorganization.

So, intelligent and constructive political commentators, intellectuals, and politicians, I again humbly ask you to refrain from the silly discussions around Abiy, and dedicate every ounce of your energy towards creating the huge Ethiopian nationalist political/civic machine that our country needs now. No more picking fights with each other. No more blame game. Focus entirely on the task at hand. Otherwise we have no one to blame but ourselves!