The Ethiopian Business Class Must Rise As A Political Power

Erring on the side of caution, we should assume that 29 years of institutionalized ethnic politics in Ethiopia has created significant 'facts on the ground'. From the political class down to the masses, ethnic nationalism has a following that cannot be ignored. It has become a political fact of life.

Unfettered ethnic nationalism both in theory and in practice (the institution of ethnic federalism) can be described as a conflict generating machine. In order to have a peaceful and productive political environment, ethnic nationalism must be curtailed and ethnic federalism must be altered to become a more pluralistic multicultural federalism, the type of which there are many successful examples throughout the world.

The task of reducing ethnic nationalist sentiment and moving from ethnic federalism towards multicultural federalism cannot be left to the federal government, the ruling Prosperity Party, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed alone. For two reasons: First, there is a significant concentration of ethnic nationalists both in the government, party, and deep state structures. Even with the departure of the TPLF and the arrests of prominent ethnic agitators, the fact is that in towns such as Shashemene, the executive, judiciary, and police are controlled by ethnic nationalists. There is also a strong ethnic nationalist presence in the Oromia wing of the ruling party. Remember the old saying about the OPDO being the OLF in disguise. Secondly, there is a degree of ethnic nationalism amongst the population especially in Oromia that cannot be ignored. The government and Prosperity Party must be careful not to antagonize this constituency. For these two reasons, the extent to which the government and party can act against ethnic nationalism using soft and hard power is limited. 

Given this, a political actor other than the government and ruling party has to step up to the plate in the struggle to reduce ethnic nationalism in Ethiopia. What political actor has the potential to do this? The masses, the intellectual class, and opposition political class have not shown any signs of being capable of political organization and action. They seem to be still weakened by over 45 years of Marxism, political revolution, and terror. This is evidenced by the fact that there has been no opposition political organization of any consequence for decades. There has been no mass political movement Ethiopia to speak of, except perhaps 'qerro', which has a significant ethnic nationalist element. So it is unlikely that the masses or opposition intellectual and political classes will be capable in the near future of creating a political movement that can work towards reducing ethnic nationalism.

There is another social class than in the near term can turn itself into a major political actor, and this social class is the new and rising business class. For two reasons. First, this class has both financial and intellectual resources. Second, and more importantly, it has the powerful invisible hand - its desire for  profit and wealth - as an incentive to work towards a stable and peaceful political environment. The only way the business class can make money and keep its wealth is by reducing ethnic nationalism and thereby bringing about a peaceful political environment. This is a strong incentive that the other social classes, such as the masses, intellectual or political elite cannot make use of. The business class, for the sake of its own survival and to protect its investments, must get politically involved and work towards reducing ethnic nationalism. We can only hope that business leaders understand this and begin the long and steady work of making the business class a political force.

The blueprint for the business class' political involvement is straightforward as it follows the same model used throughout the world from ancient times until today. Traditionally, the business class wields influences politics via soft power generated by money. It exercises influence via lobbying and marketing of various kinds,  by providing direct and indirect incentives to politicians, bureaucrats, civil society, businesses, and most importantly by creating institutions that work for its political aims, etc. The business class aims to become a permanent political influencer, not a single issue and one time lobby.

Let me give a practical example of what the actions of the business class lobby might look like. Let's take the case of Shashemene, which today has many of its government officials arrested as a result of their participation, directly or indirectly, in promoting ethnic violence and murder during the past year. To reduce ethnic nationalism in Shashemene, the entire governing structure would be targeted for influence and lobbying. In addition, influential institutions, such as organizations supporting local culture and traditions, empowering local youth in business activities, etc. would be established to give a safe and peaceful way to channel multiculturalism and economic aspirations without resorting to ethnic nationalism. These institutions would also help crowd out ethnic nationalist institutions and influence. In addition, institutions tertiary to the cause such as schools, hospitals, and businesses would be established to round out an all encompassing influencing structure. In the medium term, this work would result in attracting the populace into a more moderate political mindset, as well as tying the interests of politicians, merchants, students - all sectors of society - with moderate politics. In the long term, it will lead to the birth of a new moderate generation.

It may seem to some that the end of the TPLF means the end of ethnic nationalism and ethnic federalism. This view it seems to me is quite unrealistic. 30 years of institutionalized ethnic politics has created ethnic nationalism on the ground. The strong 'qerro' movement is an example of the result of this ethnic nationalism. This ethnic nationalism cannot be dealt with by the government alone, as the government is constrained by ethnic nationalists in its ranks, as well as ethnic nationalism in Oromia. The government needs the support of other political actors. Politicians, intellectuals, and the masses must tangible support the government to reduce ethnic nationalism. But more importantly, the social class with the most capacity, the business class, must establish itself as a political force and begin to tactfully use its enormous potential soft power in a campaign against ethnic nationalism. In this way, Ethiopia will move towards a less ethnic more peaceful political environment.

The Solution To The 'Weak Centre'

As I wrote in my previous blog post, it would normally take decades to recover from the damage - the generational loss - brought about by two revolutions. Given our political realities today, the debilitated Ethiopian political centre does not have decades to recover. It must strengthen and counter-balance the ethnic nationalist elite as soon as possible, in order to bring about any semblance of rationality and maturity to Ethiopian politics.

The shortest route of recover for the centre is for the wealthier classes, especially the business class, to assert itself in politics, but in purely a realpolitik manner. The main goal of course being less conflict and violence ridden politics. To achieve this goal, ethnic politics must be reduced - ethnic politics - especially ethnic federalism - is by theory and practice (28 years of it) and conflict and violence producing machine. Note here that it is not ethnic and local rights that need to be reduced, it is ethnic politics - I will say more on this later. What is realpolitik about this? It is of course in the strong interests of the business class that our politics moves away from ethnic strife! Peace, the ability to work and conduct business anywhere as first class citizens, security, etc., is what makes the business class more prosperous. An ethnic conflict ridden society on the other hand is a danger for business owners. So clearly, it is in the interests of the business class to work for a more united and less ethnically divided country.

Yes, it is in their interests, but is the Ethiopian business class capable of intervening successfully in politics? Of course, like all other segments of the elite, the business class has been decimated by revolution and is, for all intents and purposes, and upstart trading class. Nevertheless, its all we have. And it is wealthy. It has more than enough money to greatly influence politics. The top ten richest business owners in Addis Ababa can easily and without much pain create and fund think tanks, charities, media, political lobbies, and other influencing organizations to the amount of billions of birr. They have the money, but do understand the urgency and do they have the know-how? No, but they'll have to get it - soon. They stand to lose a lot if they continue to leave politics to the ideologues.

Here's a simple blueprint of how the business class can slowly begin to influence politics. The primary goal is a more peaceful politics.The main intermediate goal is achieving long lasting influence. This is done by creating charities (for cultivating a good relationship with the population), think tanks (to help rebuild a decent political elite), political lobbies (to influence politicians), and media. All these organizations should treat all political groups equally. Donations should be made to all, for specific peace building goals, of course. There should be as much as possible no discrimination, except perhaps against the most extreme political groups. The strategy should be 'make no enemies'. The political platform should be based on this, with two simple points: 1) All Ethiopians should be able to live as first class citizens everywhere and 2) Afan Oromo should become a national language - all federal services should be available in Afan Oromo and it should be taught in all educational institutions. No sloganeering against ethnic rights or even against ethnic nationalism. No silly equating ethnic nationalism with discrimination and racism. The approach should be empathetic and realistic, with a long term view of influence and snatching our politics away from violent ideologues.

This simple blueprint should allow the business classes to steadily increase their influence among political circles. In short order, politicians will be knocking at their door for more funds, and thus be willing to fulfill the business class' agenda, which is exactly what we want. Politicians will begin to be influence more by realpolitik than by ideology. This is fundamentally what will help transition our politics from violence to peace.