When
the Dergue collapsed in 1991 and the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF rode into
power, we feared the worst. After all, the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF were
nothing but ethnic nationalist rebels – shiftas – as far as we
were concerned, bent on destroying or breaking apart Ethiopia.
Now,
26 years later, Ethiopia is still alive – yes, with a lot of
problems – but still alive. Even though Eritrea separated and an
unadvised ethnicist constitution was enacted, Ethiopia has survived.
It has survived in large part because its population, in aggregate,
was and remains nationalist and patriotic enough to resist the
extremes of ethnic nationalism advocated by the TPLF. The TPLF tried,
like Ataturk in Turkey, to drag the population kicking and screaming
towards something it did not believe in, in this case, ethnic
nationalism, but this only worked somewhat. To a large extent,
Ethiopianism is alive and well.
Indeed,
we can say that the Ethiopian people have moderated the TPLF. Recall
that in the early 1990’s, there was no such thing as a ‘narrow
nationalist’ – only ‘chauvinists’. Let alone Oromos, even
Tigreans were encouraged by the TPLF to identify as ‘Tigrean first
and Ethiopian second’. Today there is no such thing. Much of the
TPLF now sees the extreme ethnic nationalism it once espoused as an
albatross around its neck.
If
commendation were possible, the Ethiopian people ought to be
commended for this. It is only their strong nationalism and
patriotism that has averted disaster and kept the country alive. But
what is remarkable is that they did all this without an elite – it
was all at the grassroots level. As I said above, in 1991, the EPLF,
TPLF, and OLF were the political parties with power. There was no
Ethiopian nationalist or Ethiopianist elite to speak of. After all,
this elite had committed a long suicide – from 1960 when Haile
Selassie’s elite first began to develop suicidal impulses – to
the culmination in 1991. Thus when the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF in 1991
began to discuss their future in power, there was no nationalist
elite – political or military – to stand up for Ethiopia. It was
left to the people – the grassroots – to keep the country alive,
and this they did.
Today,
still, an Ethiopianist elite is largely absent. This is not
surprising – political elites cannot appear overnight – it takes
years, maybe generations. Having completed its suicide by 1991, and
then having been prevented from rising up since then by the EPRDF,
the Ethiopian nationalist elite remains a small, sick, disabled child
which has lost all connection to its ancestors.
Is
this a result solely of the EPRDF repression of the opposition which
we all know about? Certainly not. Were it so, the elite would have
strongly manifested itself in the diaspora, outside of the reach of
the EPRDF. It has not. Another piece of evidence is the Kinijit
fiasco of 2007, which was caused mainly because of elite immaturity
and resulting infighting within Kinijit, which was that period’s
manifestation of the Ethiopianist elite.
This
for me is clear evidence that it is the Ethiopian nationalist
political suicide of 1960-1991 that has resulted in its demise.
Therefore the idea that many have that EPRDF repression is the cause
of the poor state of the Ethiopianist elite, and that if the
repression would end all would be fine, is wrongheaded. It was a long
and complicated demise and it will take a long and complicated course
to resurrect this elite. In the meantime, much of the Ethiopian
population remains hungry for nationalist leadership.
So
where does this leave those of us Ethiopianists who would like
positive change in Ethiopian politics? Those of us who would like a
reduction in ethnic nationalism, a reduction in repression,
corruption, immorality, and injustice, a platform for safely and
constructively discussing and competing policies. Those of us who
would like Ethiopia to, at the minimum, be governed by a government
that is actually liked by the people. At least a nationalist or
populist government. Where does this leave those of us who would like
this?
Well,
obviously the straightforward path of organizing movements and
parties is out of the question. This would result in swift
imprisonment and torture, and maybe even death. Since the opposition
elite is weak from 50 years of suicide, it cannot hope to directly
struggle its way through such repression. This is what the past 26
years of experience shows.
The
only possible path is the one that is not direct – the one that
involves joining the current political system – joining the EPRDF
in other words – and struggling from within. Making the EPRDF
itself the vehicle for change since the EPRDF is the only political
institution today with the capacity to bring about change and with an
experienced elite.
Impossible,
the cynics say! The TPLF, representing 8% of the population, will
never allow that. Actually, it is quite possible, precisely because
if the 92% is only slightly competent, even the superb 8% cannot
dominate it. Like Putin worked on the inside and rose all the way to
President and changed Russia 180 degrees, those who want change in
Ethiopia can do the same. Of course, it will require those who are as
wise as serpents and innocent as doves. One has to go along with the
party, slowly accumulating political capital and power along the way,
not rocking the boat, so to speak, until reaching a level of power
which allows him the freedom to enforce his will. At the same time,
someone with a good conscience can, while obeying broad party
directives, avoid perpetrating injustice and repression, and indeed
even rescuing those who might be ill affected by cruel and immoral
party cadres. This requires a high level of political maturity and
skill – it’s a difficult task. But it remains the only way
forward now. Simply waiting for divine intervention or some kind of
revolt is akin to doing nothing. Or worse than that – it is waiting
for a disaster that we cannot cope with.
So,
in my opinion, for those who are interested in bringing positive
change to Ethiopian politics, today, there is no other vehicle but
the EPRDF. The alternative political elite still hasn’t recovered
from 50 years of suicide – it doesn’t exist in Ethiopia nor in
the diaspora nor anywhere else. Therefore, rather than beating our
heads against a wall trying to do the impossible, trying to mobilize
international pressure or trying to build yet another failing
opposition movement, let us get in the inside and begin a slow
movement of taking over the EPRDF.
