Alternative Political Elite?

When the Dergue collapsed in 1991 and the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF rode into power, we feared the worst. After all, the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF were nothing but ethnic nationalist rebels – shiftas – as far as we were concerned, bent on destroying or breaking apart Ethiopia.

Now, 26 years later, Ethiopia is still alive – yes, with a lot of problems – but still alive. Even though Eritrea separated and an unadvised ethnicist constitution was enacted, Ethiopia has survived. It has survived in large part because its population, in aggregate, was and remains nationalist and patriotic enough to resist the extremes of ethnic nationalism advocated by the TPLF. The TPLF tried, like Ataturk in Turkey, to drag the population kicking and screaming towards something it did not believe in, in this case, ethnic nationalism, but this only worked somewhat. To a large extent, Ethiopianism is alive and well.

Indeed, we can say that the Ethiopian people have moderated the TPLF. Recall that in the early 1990’s, there was no such thing as a ‘narrow nationalist’ – only ‘chauvinists’. Let alone Oromos, even Tigreans were encouraged by the TPLF to identify as ‘Tigrean first and Ethiopian second’. Today there is no such thing. Much of the TPLF now sees the extreme ethnic nationalism it once espoused as an albatross around its neck.

If commendation were possible, the Ethiopian people ought to be commended for this. It is only their strong nationalism and patriotism that has averted disaster and kept the country alive. But what is remarkable is that they did all this without an elite – it was all at the grassroots level. As I said above, in 1991, the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF were the political parties with power. There was no Ethiopian nationalist or Ethiopianist elite to speak of. After all, this elite had committed a long suicide – from 1960 when Haile Selassie’s elite first began to develop suicidal impulses – to the culmination in 1991. Thus when the EPLF, TPLF, and OLF in 1991 began to discuss their future in power, there was no nationalist elite – political or military – to stand up for Ethiopia. It was left to the people – the grassroots – to keep the country alive, and this they did.

Today, still, an Ethiopianist elite is largely absent. This is not surprising – political elites cannot appear overnight – it takes years, maybe generations. Having completed its suicide by 1991, and then having been prevented from rising up since then by the EPRDF, the Ethiopian nationalist elite remains a small, sick, disabled child which has lost all connection to its ancestors.

Is this a result solely of the EPRDF repression of the opposition which we all know about? Certainly not. Were it so, the elite would have strongly manifested itself in the diaspora, outside of the reach of the EPRDF. It has not. Another piece of evidence is the Kinijit fiasco of 2007, which was caused mainly because of elite immaturity and resulting infighting within Kinijit, which was that period’s manifestation of the Ethiopianist elite.

This for me is clear evidence that it is the Ethiopian nationalist political suicide of 1960-1991 that has resulted in its demise. Therefore the idea that many have that EPRDF repression is the cause of the poor state of the Ethiopianist elite, and that if the repression would end all would be fine, is wrongheaded. It was a long and complicated demise and it will take a long and complicated course to resurrect this elite. In the meantime, much of the Ethiopian population remains hungry for nationalist leadership.

So where does this leave those of us Ethiopianists who would like positive change in Ethiopian politics? Those of us who would like a reduction in ethnic nationalism, a reduction in repression, corruption, immorality, and injustice, a platform for safely and constructively discussing and competing policies. Those of us who would like Ethiopia to, at the minimum, be governed by a government that is actually liked by the people. At least a nationalist or populist government. Where does this leave those of us who would like this?

Well, obviously the straightforward path of organizing movements and parties is out of the question. This would result in swift imprisonment and torture, and maybe even death. Since the opposition elite is weak from 50 years of suicide, it cannot hope to directly struggle its way through such repression. This is what the past 26 years of experience shows.

The only possible path is the one that is not direct – the one that involves joining the current political system – joining the EPRDF in other words – and struggling from within. Making the EPRDF itself the vehicle for change since the EPRDF is the only political institution today with the capacity to bring about change and with an experienced elite.

Impossible, the cynics say! The TPLF, representing 8% of the population, will never allow that. Actually, it is quite possible, precisely because if the 92% is only slightly competent, even the superb 8% cannot dominate it. Like Putin worked on the inside and rose all the way to President and changed Russia 180 degrees, those who want change in Ethiopia can do the same. Of course, it will require those who are as wise as serpents and innocent as doves. One has to go along with the party, slowly accumulating political capital and power along the way, not rocking the boat, so to speak, until reaching a level of power which allows him the freedom to enforce his will. At the same time, someone with a good conscience can, while obeying broad party directives, avoid perpetrating injustice and repression, and indeed even rescuing those who might be ill affected by cruel and immoral party cadres. This requires a high level of political maturity and skill – it’s a difficult task. But it remains the only way forward now. Simply waiting for divine intervention or some kind of revolt is akin to doing nothing. Or worse than that – it is waiting for a disaster that we cannot cope with.

So, in my opinion, for those who are interested in bringing positive change to Ethiopian politics, today, there is no other vehicle but the EPRDF. The alternative political elite still hasn’t recovered from 50 years of suicide – it doesn’t exist in Ethiopia nor in the diaspora nor anywhere else. Therefore, rather than beating our heads against a wall trying to do the impossible, trying to mobilize international pressure or trying to build yet another failing opposition movement, let us get in the inside and begin a slow movement of taking over the EPRDF.

The Oromo Nation – A Fait Accompli?

2009/2/20 (Ethiopian calendar)

2016/10/20 (European calendar)

[Note: An Amharic version of this post will appear sometime!]

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I've just read Dr Ezekiel Gebissa's reply to Dr Tedla Woldeyohannes' questions about the upcoming Oromo Leadership Convention in Atlanta. While answering the questions, Dr Ezekiel gives us some idea of his vision of the relationship between the Oromo nation and Ethiopia. In this article I'll take what I consider to be the best parts of his article – two major points – and expand on them.

The first is that Ethiopian history, in other words the story of Ethiopia, can be interpreted in various ways. It can be made to fit a story of a single nation albeit with different ethnic groups, or a nation of nations, or even prison of nations.

For what it's worth, I too agree that history and ethnic and national identity are to a large extent matters of interpretation. No one interpretation is the Gospel Truth. We can argue all we want about these, as we have done for decades, as laymen, as academicians, as politicians, in various contexts and within different paradigms; some of us might even change our minds; but at the end of the day, if we want live together in peace, we have to be able to agree to disagree.

Note that I say this as an ardent Ethiopian nationalist who considers the synthesis story of one multiethnic nation as the true story. Further, I consider the ethnic nationalist story not only untrue but that if it goes too far, it does not bode well for the nation as a whole. The mere fact that arguments for this story are often buttressed by claims of victimhood obviously makes for tensions, acrimony, and negative competition between ethnic groups. I would like to note that such claims are not at all necessary to build the ethnic nationalist story – it can be constructed quite well without them – but the fact that they are often used illustrates the risks that come with ethnic nationalism.

But I digress... There are valid differing opinions and they have to co-exist. In order to co-exist, I believe that we Ethiopian nationalists have not only to strive to understand these opinions, but beyond understanding we must try to empathize. Look, Oromo ethnic nationalism is not the first ethnic nationalism in the world! Plenty of other multiethnic nations are having to deal with ethnic nationalisms of different types. This alone should give one pause. We are not alone. As such I believe that humility requires that we Ethiopian nationalists step back re-assess our understanding and response to ethnic nationalism. Yes, we are right to stand and argue against it, but our position should not be as in the past, where we fought against the very right of ethnic nationalism to be politically expressed and advocated repressing it by force. That was then and is now not only an unwise but also, dare I say, an immoral course.

The second point of Dr Ezekiel's that I wish to discuss is the following: that all the arguments have been made and done, and today the Oromo nation, as part of an Ethiopian nation of nations, is a fait accompli. Ethnicity is enshrined in the Ethiopian constitution and a generation of Oromos have been taught, exclusively, ethnic nationalism. Again, this is true. Sad, for us Ethiopian nationalists, but true! We have to not only accept this new political reality, but we have to learn from how it came about so that we can avoid making the same mistakes as the past.

So, how did it come about? We Ethiopian nationalists played a huge role by mismanaging the country, by neglecting to make necessary accommodations, and perhaps worst of all, by committing political fratricide over the past half century. We managed to convert Eritrea from a region eager to join Ethiopia to a nation willing to sacrifice thousands to leave it. We made Ethiopia such an inhospitable and repressive country that some relatively few ethnic nationalist elites were able to leverage this into a vast expansion of ethnic nationalism. After the EPRDF gained power, rather than doing the obvious – conducting a self-examination to see how we could go so wrong as to leave the hands of the country in the hands of self-proclaimed ethnic nationalists – we concentrated on blaming the EPRDF for happening to fill a vacuum we created! And we bickered... Even after the EPRDF instituted today's radical ethnic nationalist constitution, we continued, in absentia, to argue amongst ourselves while the roots of ethnic nationalism spread!

Yet, despite the failures of the elite, Ethiopian nationalism still remained strong among the masses. You will recall that even just eleven years ago Kinijit demonstrated an unexpected amount of nation-wide support for at least some degree of de-ethnicization. However, our Ethiopian nationalist elites managed to make a right mess of that as well. Even today, there is no significant Ethiopian nationalist political movement – Ethiopian nationalism, as a story remains only in the hearts of the masses.

Now, we have to face Dr Ezekiel's fait accompli, not with denial, not by blaming others, and not with nostalgia, but by accepting reality and responding with a constructive agenda. Given the huge rise in Oromo ethnic nationalism and the confused state of the EPRDF, the nation of Ethiopia needs a strong Ethiopian nationalist movement to act as a counter-balance – to bring about a less risky equilibrium to the country's politics. The impediment to this is not the EPRDF nor Oromo ethnic nationalism, but the Ethiopian nationalist elite. It is time we pull ourselves up with our bootstraps before it is too late.