ለማ መገርሳ ልክ ነው፤ የዴሞግራፊ ለውጥ ግድ ነው

ከዚህ በፊት እንደጻፍኩት የጎሳ ብሄርተኝነትን ከፖለቲካችን ለመቀነስ እና ለማጥፋት የዴሞግራፊ ለውጦች ማምጣት ግድ ነው (https://asfawdarguemeshal.blogspot.com/2016/09/curbing-ethnic-nationalism-via_26.html)። ምከንያቱ ባጭሩ እንዲህ ነው...

የጎሳ ብሄርተኝነት ህዝብ ውስጥ በተለይ የኦሮሞ ህዝብ ውስጥ በደምብ እንደገባ ሁላችንም ገብቶናል። በልሂቃን ደረጃ ብቻ ሳይሆን በብዙሃን ደረጃም። ይህን ጎሰኝነት በስብከት እና ልመና ማጥፋት አይቻልም። የተም ሀገር የጎሳ ብሄርተንኘት አንዴ ከሰፈነ የሚቅንሰው ነገር ፖለቲካዊ ድርድር ሳይሆን የዴሞግራፊያዊ ለውጥ ብቻ ነው። በኢትዮጵያ የሚያስፈልገው የዴሞግራፊ ለውጥ በኦሮሞ እና ሌላው ኢትዮጵያዊ መካከል መቅላቀል እና ውህደት (integration and assimilation) ነው። ህዝቡ ተቀላቅሎ ተጋብቶ ተዋልዶ የቅይጥ ባህል እና ህዝብ መጨመር አለበት። በዚህ መንገድ የጎሳ ብሄርተኛው ጎራ እያነሰ ይሄዳል የፖለቲካ ኃይሉም ይመነምናል። ይህን የሚያስፈጽም አንድ ፖሊሲ ኦሮምኛ የህገር ሙሉ ቋንቋ ማድረግ ነው። ይህ ኦሮሞዎች ከኦሮሚያ ወደ ሌላው ኢትዮጵያ እንዲፈልሱ ይጋብዛል። ለምሳሌ ኦሮምኛ ለማስተማር ወደ አማራ ክልል ይመጣሉ። ይህ ፈልስት መቀላቀልን እና መወሃድን ያመጣል። ከላይ የጠቀስኩት ጽሁፍ ባጭሩ ይህን ነው የሚለው።

በቅርቡ ለማ መገርሳ ስለኦሮሞ ህዝብ ወደ ከተማ መፍለስ እናለበት ያሉት ነገር ከዚህ ጋር አብሮ ይሄዳል። ለምሳሌ አዲስ አበባ ዙርያ የሚኖረው ባብዛኛው ኦሮሞ ነው። አዲስ አበባ ባደገች ቁጥር በሜትሮፖሊታን ከተማው ያለው የኦሮሞ ህዝብ ቁጥር እየጨመረ መሄዱ አይቀርም። ከላይ በጻፍኩት አንጻር ይህ የኦሮሞ ህዝብ በአዲስ አበባ መብዛት አይቀሬም ብቻ ሳይሆን እንደ ጥሩ ነገር ነው መታየት ያለበት። ከተማው ህዝቡን ይቀላቅለዋል እና ያዋህደዋል። ይህ ውህደት የጎሳ ብሄርተኝነትን ይቀንሳል። ስለዚህ ኦሮሞዎችን ወደ አዲስ አበባ እና ሌሎች ከተሞች እንዲፈልሱ ያለው የኦዴፓ እቅድ ጥሩ ነው ማለት ይቻላል።

አሁን ከኛ ከኢትዮጵያ ብሄርተኞች ጎራ የሚጠበቀው ይህ እቅድ በምንፈልገው በአውንታዊ መስመር እንዲካሄድ ነው። «የጎሳ ጌቶዎች» ወይንም የአንድ ጎሳ ሰፈሮች እንዳይፈጠሩ፤ እውነታዊ ውህደት እንዲኖር፤ ሌላው ህብረተሰብ ኦሮምኛ እንዲማር፤ አድሎዋዊነት እንዳይኖር፤ ወዘተ መስራት አለብን። ሌላው ከኛ የሚጠበቀው ነገር የኦሮሞዎች መብት እና ፍላጎት በአዲስ አበባ እንደሚከበረው የሌሎች ዜጎች መብት እና ፍላጎት በኦሮሚያ እንዲከበር መሟገት እና ማስፈጸም ነው። አልፎ ተርፎ ኦሮሙማ (የኦሮሞ ባህል) በአዲስ አበባ እና መላው ኢትዮጵያ እንዲንጸባረቅ በመስማማት in exchange የጎሳ ፌደራሊዝም ሀገ መንግስቱ እንዲቀየር መሟገት እና መደራደር አለብን። ይህን ለማድረግ ታላቅ አቅም እና መደራጀት ይጠበቅብናል።

ነገሮችን ሁሉ በአውንታዊ መልኩ እንደ opportunity ማየት የአሸናፊነት ምልክት ነው። ኦዴፓ ኦሮሞን ወደ አዲስ አበባ እንዲሄድ እናበረታታለን ሲል እኛ እሰየው ብለን በሂደቱ ተሳትፈን እኛ የምንፈልገው መልክ እንዲይዝ ማድረግ አለብን። ከውጭ እያየን በፍርሃት ከማልቀስ ጉዳይ ውስጥ ገብተን መምራት ነው ያለብን።

ስለዚህ ለማ መገርሳ ልክ ነው፤ የዴሞግራፊ ለውጥ ግድ ነው። በዚህ መንገግድ ብቻ ነው መቀላቀል እና መዋሃድ የሚመጣው። በዚህ መንገድ ብቻ ነው አሁን በህብረተሰባችን የሰፈነው ጎሰኝነት ከረዥም ዓመታት በኋላ እንዲቀንስ እና እንዲጠፋ ማድረግ የሚቻለው።

Some thoughts on Oromiffa as the second federal language...

I fully support the idea that Oromiffa should become the second federal language, for various reasons. These include the relatively large number of Oromiffa speakers in Ethiopia, political events over the past few decades, including Oromo nationalism, Oromo region ensuring Amharic is not taught in Oromo schools as part of its drive towards Oromo nationalism, thereby created facts on the ground to force the issue, etc. make this seem to be the most prudent political direction. And I would add - and I would consider this the most important benefit of having Oromiffa as a federal language - that this can actually reduce ethnic nationalism and thereby ethnic conflict by increasing integration and the integrated population. I've written previously about this (https://asfawdarguemeshal.blogspot.com/2016/09/curbing-ethnic-nationalism-via_26.html and http://asfawdarguemeshal.blogspot.com/2018/07/towards-integrated-ethiopia.html). To repeat, this means that by making Oromiffa a federal language, and thereby, for example, encouraging Amhara Region to achieve full fluency in Oromiffa, we increase integration, and we reduce ethnic nationalism, which for me is one of the existential issues for Ethiopia.

However, I think there are two very important points to make here. First, the issue of Oromiffa as a federal language is often presented as one of principle, and this is done so to claim a moral high ground. I think that in order to avoid building on sand,  we have to be honest and acknowledge that this is a political issue, not one of 'principle', insofar as principle exists. By principle I mean values such as equality, restoration, fairness, etc. By principle, a Somali can demand the same for the Somali language. Why should Amharic and Oromiffa be privileged, he can rightly ask? He might even add that while before only Amharic speakers had an 'advantage' over him, now both Amharic and Oromo speakers have this 'advantage'. (I put 'advantage' in quotes because it can easily be considered a disadvantage. A Somali who is properly taught Amharic and Oromiffa in school becomes trilingual whereas the Oromo remains monolingual - the Somali is better off.) So let us not pretend this is an issue of principle, of righteousness vs unrighteousness, of morality vs immorality, of oppressed vs oppressor. Oromiffa becomes a federal language not because of the need for equality, restoration, or fairness, but for political and practical reasons, for the same reasons as Amharic remains, because it is spoken, natively or not natively, by a large number of citizens who have the political power to enforce their demand.

A second, implicit idea in all of this is the desire for many to make this a political negotiating tool vs Oromo ethnic nationalism. "If you want us to support you in making Oromiffa a federal language, then give us ... in exchange." What most are asking in return is, I think, a revision of ethnic federalism to make it less ethnic and more national - a revision of the constitution in other words. Some are also asking for culturally symbolic concessions such as changing the script to Geez. As I said above, given that the demand is political, the demand for political concessions is certainly fair, in my mind. It makes sense, and it makes sense to carry this into the negotiating room and the public discussion sphere. What will come of it, we'll see.

Towards an Integrated Ethiopia

Decades ago we used to be presented with a stark choice between a "unitary" state speaking Amharic, assimilating all other ethnic groups, and with nearly everything controlled by the central government, and approximately 85 separate nations, one for each of our ethnic groups! And unfortunately all debate revolved around these caricatures, and we never got anywhere.

Today, thankfully things have changed. We have, fortunately or unfortunately, data from 27 years of the radical experiment called ethnic federalism, where as much as was realistically possible, regions were drawn along ethnic lines and ethnicity ("nations, nationalities, and peoples") became the foundation of the Ethiopian state. I would say that these 27 years have shown us conclusively that this formula is one of ethnic strife, conflict, war, ethnic competition, ethnic-motivated mass dislocations, etc.

Some would say that what we have had is fake or bastardized ethnic federalism in which the TPLF ruled as a dictatorship and never really implemented the constitution in practice. This is certainly true to some extent, but enough was implemented to see the results. Ethnic based regions were created, ethnic based identity cards were encouraged in many regions, and there was some degree of self rule in the regions. Moreover, most of the ethnic conflicts throughout Ethiopia have not been related to TPLF dominance. Instead, they have been occurring between non-Tigrean ethnic groups. Take for example Amharas and other "non-locals" being evicted from various regions, or being hunted down and murdered in the name of retribution for historical injustices. Or conflicts between Gedeo and Guji, or Oromo and Somali, or Qemant and Amhara, or Agew and Amhara, etc. There are plenty of examples. It is clear that the placement of ethnicity at the centre of political life resulted in conflict and ethnic political competition, which is always a recipe for disaster. Despite the fact that the ethnic federalism experiment was not perfectly tried out, we have seen enough to know that it cannot work for Ethiopia.

As I say this, I have to add that the even EPRDF itself recognized a couple of years ago that this was the case. The main catalyst for this recognition was that the ethnic hatred inculcated by ethnic federalism started to target Tigreans more and more. The combination of ethnic federalism and the EPRDF's beloved developmental state was proving untenable. The public's resentment against the ruling class, as represented by the EPRDF, was not only based on politics and class, but on ethnicity - on anti-Tigrean sentiment. The resentment became virulent, and the EPRDF knew that things could not continue as is without full blown ethnic war. Hence the beginning of the opening of the EPRDF, and in particular the TPLF, to changes that eventually brought about Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his team to power.

So I think today it is clear that the ethnic federalism formula as we have it, even if implemented 'perfectly', is not a good solution for Ethiopia because it brings about conflict. Not because it is inherently unjust, but because we have evidence that it does not work and it results in concrete strife and misery. Why has it not worked? A few reasons... First, there is in many parts of Ethiopia ethnic resentment and historical baggage. Ethnic-based governance only exacerbates this. Second, a significant portion of our incapable political elite wish to use ethnic competition as a way to political power and have no qualms about encouraging ethnic conflict. Third, there has been over hundreds or thousands of years significant integration and even assimilation in Ethiopia, resulting in a large constituency not interested in ethnicity, but nevertheless persecuted by ethnic politics for historical grievance reasons and for not signing on to the ethnic ideology. For these and other reasons, and given the evidence we have, the current ethnic federalism formula should, in time, be abandoned.

Abandoned for what? For many of us, the choice today is between 1) an integrated and synthesized Ethiopianism or 2) an Ethiopia divided on ethnic lines - a nation of disparate nations. 2) is more or less what we have now, the recipe for ethnic strife and conflict. The first choice is, I think, our only choice. What is integrated and synthesized? It means reflecting as much is realistically possible and in keeping with the wants of the population everyone's identity in Ethiopianness. An obvious and often stated example of this: making the Oromo language a national language of Ethiopia, in addition to the current Amharic, integrates into Ethiopianness the use of the Oromo language. It moves it from the periphery, or from a single region, to the national level. Another example: integrating elements of the Gadaa political structure into the nation's political structure. And so on. What about other ethnic groups and their identities? What about the level of regional and local autonomy? These and several other questions can be answered via discussion and evolution. But the point is that integration and unity is the only way to peace and prosperity. A single Ethiopian identity must be cultivated, not to the exclusion of ethnic identity, but to ensure that it always supersedes ethnic identity, thereby reducing the temptation of ethnic politics and ethnic conflict.

What about the transition from ethnic based politics to this new "Ethiopian" politics? It should probably be slow since we have a generation schooled under the ERPDF's ethnic politics and we have a perhaps worse older political class schooled under Marxism and democratic socialism. The first step is to implement integrative policies such as the language policy I mentioned above. One of the goals of this policy is to increase inter-ethnic integration and increase the non-ethnicized population. After some years (or decades) of this, the proportion of non-ethnicized Ethiopians will be such that a transition to non-ethnic politics will be easy.

That is the plan. There are two hindrances that I see. First, the obvious, are the ideological and cynical ethnic politicians who would stand to lose from an abandonment of ethnic federalism. The second is the group against ethnic politics but which does not have the political savvy and empathy needed to relate to and hold discussions with ethnic federalists. The ethnic politicians we will always have with us - I don't think there is anything we can do but marginalize them. But the second group we should work on as if this group - I call it the Ethiopianist group - gets its act together, then we will have a smooth transition from today's combustible ethnic federalism to an integrated and synthesized Ethiopia.