Brief Note: Ethiopian Elites and the West

Ethiopia should pursue a rational and credible foreign policy. It should rationally, not emotionally and out of revenge, re-assess its relationship with the West and engage in cooperation where interests align. But it should also credibly punish the West for what it has done. At the same time, Ethiopia should reward allies such as China who stood by it while it was under attack. Ethiopia should completely re-assess its long term geostrategic policy in light of the West's attack on it and in light of current geopolitical realities.

One of the problems Ethiopia will have as it engages in revising its foreign policy is the ideological and emotional attachment of much of its elite with the West. Before and after the Cold War, the West used its soft power, including propaganda, to capture the hearts of elites all around the world. Ethiopia was no exception. The basics of the propaganda was that the West is moral and altruistic - exceptional. It wants the best for all the world. Shocking that we believed such obviously simplistic propaganda, but we did. We developed a dangerous, irrational, emotional attachment to the West.

For the sake of peace and survival, our elite has to rid itself of this emotional irrational perception of the West. All our silly assumptions should be swept away.

Thankfully, today, most of Ethiopia has realised that the West is not any more altruistic or moral than any place else. It can be cruel and nonsensical. Its ideological Messianic complex (neocolonial impulse) can make it extremely dangerous. This realisation has to set firm roots in our psyche. For the sake of our survival and peace in our region, we should never again be so naïve.

Brief Note on Ethiopia and the West: Realism and Credibility

Over the last year or so, we have all seen the West - USA, EU, and some allies - engage openly in unrelenting hybrid warfare against Ethiopia via their proxy, the TPLF rebels. They have made no attempts to hide their intentions, no attempts to equivocate or pretend to be balanced. It has been all out war. If the Ethiopian government wins the war, and it certainly looks that way today, how should Ethiopia manage its relationship with the West.

In my opinion, Ethiopia has to follow the standard geopolitical path of realism. Realism would dictate that Ethiopia has to realistically assess its interests and those of the West, and engage work together with the West where the interests coincide. Just as, for example, Russia or China work closely with the West on many matters. Ethiopia should not, out of emotion and the need for revenge, fail to rationally assess its relationship with the West.

On the other hand, and this, I think, is crucial, Ethiopia has to adhere to the other standard tenet of geopolitics, and that is credibility. The Ethiopian government must favour and reward those allies who stood by Ethiopia in its fight against the TPLF and the West, and it must punish the West for its actions. The details of how this is done are of course to be studied and will evolve, but Ethiopia has to be seen to be able to reciprocate credibly, and to follow through on its rhetoric credibly.